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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (93178)	2/15/2000 1:39:00 AM
From: Scumbria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1571405

Paul, Remember - as Intel cuts its prices, its volumes will rise which will, in turn, cut its costs. The volumes of PIII will rise, and the volumes of Celeron will fall. If they engage in a major price war at the high end, they won't need Celeron anymore. Scumbria

To: Paul Engel who wrote (93178)	2/15/2000 9:14:00 AM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 1571405

Re: Intel will do anything and everything it has to do to protect its market share... Are you forecasting losses of $1 to $2 Billion per quarter for Intel for the next year? Any expectations on effects on share price, employee retention (those options aren't looking quite as rosy as they once did), and management longevity? AMD plans to convert FAB 25 to flash, and capture 30% of the market while having to support the costs of only a single FAB. For the next year, at least, AMD looks pretty much invulnerable to losses. AMD will be moderately profitable at ASPs of $50 - and, in order to maintain two sources of supply, Compaq, IBM, and Gateway will happily pay $50 for high speed chips even if Intel elects to sell similar speed chips for $25 - At $25, Intel will exhaust its cash reserves and go into debt in about 7 months. At which point AMD will still be in a better cash position than it is now. When a single FAB can produce 50 million parts a year, 5 FABs don't constitute an asset, they are a liability. And, for all of our sakes, let's hope it doesn't come down to this! Dan