To: marquis103 who wrote (78219 ) 2/15/2000 7:59:00 AM From: rupert1 Respond to of 97611
WSJ - cites MM who likes CPQ February 14, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Tech Investors Love Their Sector, But Raise Cash Anyway By ANTHONY PALAZZO LOS ANGELES -- The technology sector offers tremendous investment opportunities over the long term, but investors may want to wait a few months before taking the plunge, if they trust the advice of three experts. Ronald Elijah, Alberto Vilar and Ken Pearlman are all true believers in technology. Elijah is president of Elijah Asset Management; his Information Age Fund rose 126% in 1999. Alberto Vilar, founder of Amerindo Investment, owns perhaps more stock in Internet companies than any other investment manager, and Ken Pearlman, of First Hand Funds, is a semiconductor specialist. The men, who spoke Sunday on a panel at an investment conference sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, each rode technology gains to new highs in 1999. Yet each has been paring back on technology holdings recently. "I'm a great bull on technology. But it's easier to talk about the next five years than the next six months," Elijah said. Elijah is cautious about the next three to four months, citing rising interest rates as one worry. He's moved to about a 10% cash position, and he's moved into larger-capitalization stocks. "It's asking a lot to ask our universe to go straight up," Elijah said. Elijah is sheedding some smaller names and gravitating to larger-capitalization stocks like KLA-Tencor Corp. (KLAC), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) and Intel Corp. (INTC). He also likes computer companies Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ) and Sun Microsystems Inc. (SUNW), although he's a little worried about Dell Computer Corp. (DELL) right now. He doesn't own Dell or Gateway (GTW). Another name Elijah's shed recently is JDS Uniphase Corp. (JDSU), although he still likes the company. Pearlman also likes Applied Materials and KLA Tencor, as well as chip stocks he sees as Internet communications infrastructure plays: Applied Micro Circuits Corp. (AMCC), PMC-Sierra Inc. (PMCS), Transwitch Corp. (TXCC) and Vitesse Semiconductor Corp. (VTSS). But while Pearlman likes these companies, he's also been paring back on stocks. He's afraid that general bullishness, the reaction to the Taiwan earthquake last fall - which interrupted chip supplies - and stockpiling related to Year 2000 concerns, have created a condition of oversupply in the current quarter. "The biggest risk is that the most bullish scenario has actually occurred," Pearlman said. He believes there's some risk that some chip companies could fall short of expectations in the current March quarter. "If you're waiting for the companies to tell you, then you're making a big mistake," Pearlman said. Vilar weathered a broad downturn in Internet stocks from April to August last year, and then rode the group back to highs late in the year. He's also expecting a correction over the next four to six months, and he notes that Internet stocks will fall 30-50% in a typical correction. "I think this can be one of the last opportunities to buy into the correction, ignore the pessimists, and secure fantastic gains," Vilar said. His A-list names are infrastrure plays such as Ariba Inc. (ARBA), Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM), Sycamore Networks Inc. (SCMR). His B-list - stocks that have lagged, but he likes - include Priceline.com Inc. (PCLN), Healtheon/Web MD Corp. (HLTH), LookSmart Ltd. (LOOK) and CMGI Inc. (CMGI). Vilar points to a predicted surge of electronic commerce over the next several years. "Over the next three to five years I think you'll see the largest creation of wealth we've ever seen in this country," he said. - By Anthony Palazzo, Dow Jones Newswires; 323-658-3776; tony.palazzo@dowjones.com