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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (18020)	2/15/2000 8:00:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Defining Moments About six months ago we enjoyed one of the finest periods in the folder when there was a terrific discussion of defining moments and their context relative to the formation of tornados. It occurs to me that I might have come up with what might prove to be Gemstar's defining moment. For a long time, the HDTV manufacturers, set-top box manufacturers and the cable providers have been in discussion with each other about agreeing upon a standard that allows the HDTV to contain the elements of the set-top box, eliminating the need for a set-top box as a separate piece of hardware. One of the key issues at the center of this is the treatment of interactive program guides (IPGs). The hardware manufacturer that puts Gemstar's or TV Guide's IPG inside an HDTV doesn't want a cable provider to strip that Guide and replace it with their own Guide sent through the cable. For me, Gemstar's defining moment will be when these diversely motivated interests come to an agreement about that. Such an agreement will be the signal that all of them appreciate the need for a value chain which supports a single way of doing things that will inure to everyone's benefit. It will allow HDTVs to be adopted on a mass-market level sooner which will lower the price of them which in a chicken-and-egg scenario will allow the mass market to develop at a faster rate. Once HDTVs are being bought at masss-market rates the convergence of television and the Net will happen, having eliminated the constraint that current television resolution is inferior for use of text on the Net. Regardless of how long it takes for Gemstar's tornado to begin after that agreement is made, that agreement will be the defining moment that sets everything else in motion. Just my opinion. --Mike Buckley

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (18020)	2/15/2000 8:17:00 AM
From: shamsaee	Respond to of 54805

Mike when I read the headline news yesterday,It was not Dell but component manufacturers announcements and the words "large production scale" that got my attention.If they are really going to be producing components around rambus Technology in large numbers,they must have secured large orders from Dell and the rest of the box makers.The other bit of news on CNBC that got my attention,which I am trying to verify is that a Double Intel processor with Rambus RIMM is the most optimal way for Windows 2000 performance.IF that is true,I would think its huge for RMBS unless Windows 2000 flops which is very unlikely in my opinion.

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (18020)	2/15/2000 8:51:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Rambus Chasm Crossing Mike, My comment was more to cause people to think in the terms of time and scale of adoption (and hence the level of risk, even if it has crossed the chasm). I think the various releases of computers with RMBS bode well for it being able to claim having crossed the chasm. Here's my question: how long does one need to be on terra firma to claim a successful chasm crossing? A minute? A Day? A year? A decade? It's probably not a decade, but perhaps it could be over a year. ...And that is probably more determined by the level of adoption than pure time. Now relate that to when a displacing standard is announced. It seems to be a classic strategy to pre-announce products to destabilize the competition (and all the memory manufacturers see RMBS as taking money out of their pockets). At a minimum it would probably give the various manufacturers leverage to renegotiate some royalties. I would also guess that Intel as part of that group would join in on leveraging RMBS to capitulate. Now if that happened, don't you think that at least RMBS's chasm crossing status(or at least their ability to capitalize on that status) would appear at risk to the market? There is already precedent as to what will happen to RMBS's valuation in such a situation. I think that potential investors in RMBS should consider that even chasm crossing is not a guarantee of Gorilladom nor future gains in valuation. The recent Williamette announcement strengthens RMBS future prospects. OTOH, perhaps they've just given AMD another potential marketing tool to us against Intel? (Please save all those replies about AMD's ability to execute, I know. I'm just pointing out a broader scope of risk) Anybody on this thread employing G&K investing strategy should really try to think through these points before making a RMBS investment. FATBOY P.S Nobody should think I'm infallible: I elected not to buy JDSU last year and one former (admittedly high risk) investment proved its riskiness by filing bankruptcy early this year.