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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (6727)	2/15/2000 3:07:00 PM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10293

You made an assumption, and we know what those are. Am I supposed to think it's likely that you emailed him to say "hey, great article"? No. Don't even know what the Naked Truth thread is. It's a group of bears for whom a great market crash (dubbed "The Big Kahuna") which will bankrupt half of America and especially Michael Dell, is never more than a week or two away. They're a little more fun than that, actually. That comment sounded like something I'd read there. Do you want to tell us or do you just like wasting bandwidth? How about the simple common sense of always having a reserve to be able use to load up when the situation calls for it? The worst thing that can ever happen to a hedge fund manager like Cramer is to see a buying opportunity and have no cash available to take advantage. How many momentum traders read Greenberg, Bronchick, Padinha, or the other thestreet.com writers who think the market is insane and essentially a fundamental-less casino? <raises hand> 1) Market is going higher because the economy is good; 2) Good stocks will go higher and higher because valuations (price) are irrelevant now; 3) Individual momentum investors are smart; 4) Institutional value investors are stupid. Replace "smart" with "right" and "stupid" with "Wrong!", and I'll call it close enough.

To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (6727)	2/16/2000 11:30:00 AM
From: BelowTheCrowd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10293

I agree. Cramer is at his best when things AREN'T looking perfect and he draws on his experience to try to explain what's going on, what to look for that might signal a change, etc. He did that very well during the Asia crisis and during many of the other drops. His look back at the CD debacle that cost him 1998 and several others were good too. He's great when there's really weird MM stuff, or other unclear trading mechanics pushing stocks up or down. Again, his experience shows. Unfortunately, neither he nor the value guys have much good to say when the market just moves up inexplicably. He makes up excuses for why things are great and should continue to be. The value guys mostly write about why we're all ultimately doomed. Fact is, neither of the camps has ANY experience to draw on in explaining this market. Nothing like it has existed in our lifetimes. The only possible sources are books covering periods like the US in 1929, the railroad manias (US and UK) in the 1800s, the South Seas debacle in the UK in the 1800s, and the everpresent tulips. And the only conclusion you can draw from any of those is: when things move up to prices which cannot be justified in terms of earnings, they will EVENTUALLY fall. And "eventually" is pretty fuzzy advice... mg