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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Duke of URL© who wrote (37899)	2/15/2000 1:25:00 PM
From: larry	Respond to of 74651

Duke, There are two different types of momos. The majority never do any serious R&D, and the others penetrate deep into the hot groups and usually those will see maximum gain. I am not cheating on anything, although bio is my expertise. However, I could not get enough DELL two years ago (and criticized the company a year ago) and raved about QCOM and PCS last year (accounted for 70% of my position and dumped them on the first trading day this year). I have no expertise in those sectors (PC and telecom). However, I was able to follow or sense where the hot $$ goes and make some nice benefits out of it. I guess that this qualifies as some kind of momo play. I used to care about valuation. However, it seems that the more you think of value play, the more $$ you lose and underperform the market. Q was outrageously overvalued at north of 150, yet it seems that everyone could not get enough of the issue. I also noticed that small margin that Q was able to beat expectations in the last two quarters. Will a penny more satisfy investors and momos in the future down the road? Still too many momos hanging on to Q and they will be killed in the forseeable future. Most of my $$ are in the hottest issues and I am not really worried about a crash. According to traditional valuations, they should crash. However, in the new economy or trading environment, the most outrageously overvalued issues consistently outperform the market by a mile. I have a sizable position (sold puts) on Softie and I am beginning to realize that this respectable company is truly out of favor from the Street. Meanwhile, I also realize that the party of CSCO is about over. In one year or two, its growth rate is not gonna support its heavy triple digit PE. larry!

To: The Duke of URL© who wrote (37899)	2/17/2000 12:59:00 AM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

You wrote, "But rationally, if you succeed in finding that one company that has made a legitimate breakthru, you are now betting on its direct competition within the sector. Economically, this makes no sense." I don't think so......I have 20% of my portfolio in MSFT and 80% in HGSI, INCY, CRA, MLNM, DNA, AFFX, GERN, UTHR, TTP, INCY, MYGN. These issues were selected based on conversations with people inside or very familiar with these companies. 2/3 of those are momo play. I firmly believe that only those with solid R&D that will benefit from the genomics database will survive in the long run. Almost all of thse issues will run wide in the near future. However, at least 50% of them will not live up to their advanced billings and crash within the years to come. Among them the one that crashes hardest will be CRA. However, its crash will actually benefit the whole sector in the long run. INCY has the R&D that will at least make its lofty valuations a bit sense. CRA has no R&D to support the backfire that will come eventually. And any decent scientist will tell you the quality of R&D its mother company does. Don't bet on any revolutionary discovery from PEB and in the long term, CRA cannot generate its revenue from its mother company when suddenly the Street is demanding revenues and earnings. If NIH forces open access to the database, INCY will not experience the disaster that will face some other issues. cheers, larry!