<<How come you do not participate in those threads.>>
I used to comment on other stocks on this board, but I have taken those to PM mode, so as not to make OT posts. I also post at a couple of club sites. I tend to write pretty detailed posts (long-winded, as my detractors would have it<ggg>), so I must limit the number of boards I post to.
I like commenting on NITE, because it is a fascinating case of absolutely outstanding fundamentals, and rotten technicals (both at least partially due to KP).
I have no personal axe to grind w/ KP. I criticize him sharply for what I see as his missteps, things that in my opinion have had a catastrophic effect on the shareprice, as well as actual business consequences (the Arb. acquisition became unnecessarily expensive due to low NITE share price). His missteps are not simply a figment of my imagination, but pretty widely accepted in the investment community - just look his shameful behavior in pre-announcing the 3Q 99 results so late. I happen to think the problem is much deeper, that's my call and I provided detailed reasons for it. You are free to disagree. KP is not someone I have uniquely targeted - I examine leadership at the top very carefully. I sold my MER after being an investor for a long time when I grew extremely dissatisfied with Komansky. I sold at 105 in 98 - the stock went down from there, but that was not the reason I sold it - my cost was low enough, that I would have happily held it through the decline (as I'm doing w/ MSFT - held since 92). And the stock has come back strongly this year - still, I did not buy back in, even though I like MER as an investment very much. It is a matter of principle for me. Now there is talk of Komansky stepping down - and I'm thinking of buying back in.
That being said - I always try to be as objective as I can. I readily acknowledge KP's brilliance as a trader and businessman. He has built a great business, though it could have been greater - silver medal rather than gold. I simply see more than one side. And because criticism of NITE management is as scarce as hen's teeth on this board, I think I do provide some balance by filling in the picture a bit.
<<Your wordings are very clever like a newsletter writer, no matter what the outcome, you've made your negative bias clear (I told you so) and yet you say long term it's a buy (I told you so). Either way you will be back to claim you were right.>>
One good thing is that these boards provide a permanent record of posts. All you have to do is go over my posts here as far as you like. My record stands. I have been very clear, and have often provided both time-frames and price targets. I have seldom been wrong.
I don't claim to have NEVER made a bad call. As I just pointed out in an earlier post, I actually LOST some money on NITE in late July 99. However, the vast majority of my calls have been accurate. They have to be, because as a trader I immediately feel the consequences of being right or wrong.
When, f.ex. most recently - on Jan 28, I said most *short-term* players would sell NITE, because they are not looking for a few points off the bottom, but for a rocket, and are afraid of being stuck with "dead money" - I could have been proven wrong. F.ex., if the stock immediately plunged, rather than going up a few points from the bottom (which is what shorts on many boards claimed). Or if the stock rocketed and kept on going up past 40 etc., I'd be wrong again - and many thought that the stock would take off after that "hard" bounce off 29 1/2, and I was chastised on this board for being too pessimistic about the "dead money" effect. Well, the scenario unfolded exactly as I said it would - short bounce up, and then dead money. Had things turned out in any number of different ways - I'd be wrong. But I specified that as a SHORT-TERM player interest. Long term - I maintained, and always did, that NITE is a good buy. In fact, I think it is a good buy - for the LONG TERMER - as high as 34-35. If NITE ends this year lower than 34-35, I'll be wrong, and you can chastise me. If f.ex., NITE goes the way Amy Butte claims - sub $20, like $11.5 - $15, I'll be WRONG. She supplied a lot of research to justify her position, and she is a professional analyst paid a lot of money. So who is to say she will be wrong? And yet, I strongly disagree, and provided my reasons, and refuted her research - I was the first on this board to react to her report with detailed counterarguments, so I'm not just taking a cheap shot. We'll see if I am WRONG - and I'll clearly be wrong if the year ends, and NITE is at or below 34-35 (I'd estimate NITE's value as of *right now*, *conservatively* at about $50). If I'm wrong with my target, I'll apologize, and congratulate Amy Butte.
There is nothing wrong in having a more complex target for NITE. That is why I have both short-term, and long-term targets. My short-term calls have been accurate - on my long term, we'll have to wait. I still strongly believe that long term, NITE's future is extremely bright. There is no contradiction - even analysts often break down their calls into "short term X, but long term Y".
I do a lot of work before I set a target or time frame. It is not magic - but hours of research and calculations.
Further, it would be unfair to say that I simply give targets with no justification. To be sure, only a madman would claim that there is 100% predictability in the market. A lot of the work is based on statistics and probability, and so some uncertainty always remains.
F.ex., I was not surprised by today's action in NITE. All of 99 until today, there was only one occassion, when NITE went down on 6 CONSECUTIVE trading days (back in October - we all know when). And there was only one occasion when NITE went down on 5 CONSECUTIVE trading days (December of 99). NITE went down on 4 CONSECUTIVE trading days some 8 times or so, so this is not all that unusual. NITE just experienced 4 consecutive down trading days. Therefore, it would be a statistical rarity if it went down again today - not impossible of course, just a rare occassion (happenened only twice in 13 1/2 months). This is of course purely statistically speaking, and has nothing to do with fundamentals, market conditions, news etc. Based on this statistic, some people figured it was a good gamble, and bought NITE in the last 1/2 hour yesterday, bringing it up from 31 1/16 to 31 1/2. Now, regardless of the fact that a sophisticated player understands the probabilistic concept of "gambler's mistake" - the salient point, was the fact that if many people believe something, and act on it, the price will move in that direction - that's how you get mo-mo. And as a trader, it is your job to anticipate this. As can be seen, these statistics are a matter of record - and odds are, that next time NITE declines 4 times in a row, many traders will buy like crazy, and push it up on the 5th trading day; is this a certitude? No, since twice it went down the next day too - but the issue is ODDS as perceived by the mass of traders. It made sense to gamble on it, because the ODDS favored a positive outcome. Naturally, you try to factor in other variables to cut down on the chance of failure - like last Oct, when extremely bad news came out, it was not a good gamble to go with the "declined 4 times, won't again". This time there were no such factors, so it was a good gamble. See how it will act in the future. There are many such statistical quirks one can take advantage of - but one thing is clear - it is not JUST guessing and throwing out figures.
OK, I've answered sincerely and extensively, even though I sense your post was not exactly a friendly one. Hopefully, at least you'll see that I am a straight shooter, and while we may disagree, there is no need for personal attacks.
Good luck!
Morgan
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