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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (24268)	2/15/2000 3:35:00 PM
From: jghutchison	Respond to of 25960

More expected good news in our sector from Briefing.com. The closing statement supports Curly's thesis - "As a result, there is upside to earnings estimates going forward, and there is even upside to AMAT multiples so long as the peak in the orders cycle is still ahead, which at this point it is." Applied Materials (AMAT) 162 5/8 +1 9/16: AMAT's earnings report after the close today is a key market focus, and the Street is very optimistic about the outcome. The First Call consensus earnings estimate is $0.77, with many brokerage firms expecting numbers just above the estimate (as usual) at about $0.78-0.80. Revenues are expected in the $1.6-1.7 bln range. Perhaps more important than either of those figures, however, will be the orders number. Merrill Lynch, whose estimates lie at the optimistic end of the Street range, expects bookings of $2.0-2.2 bln. Optimism regarding orders stems from general strength in the semiconductor sector. Analysts have cited Intel's (INTC) stronger than expected capital spending projection of $5 bln in 2000, and Merrill Lynch notes that "device makers are now in a panic mode...orders for equipment across the industry are coming at a furious pace." While AMAT is clearly benefitting from optimism ahead of the earnings report, the key question is whether all of the good news is already in this stock. AMAT is trading at a daunting 37 times 2001 estimates in what has been a notoriously cyclical industry. The cycle for the stocks in the sector mirrors trends in orders, however, and for now that trend is still higher. As a result, there is upside to earnings estimates going forward, and there is even upside to AMAT multiples so long as the peak in the orders cycle is still ahead, which at this point it is. - GJ