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Non-Tech : Bill Wexler's Dog Pound -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (6730)	2/15/2000 5:39:00 PM
From: Smilodon	Respond to of 10293

I think Cramer carries a lot of cash because he does a lot of short term trading. I think momentum investing for an individual or small hedge fund is a good strategy, as long as they use rules or stop losses to get out when the momentum fails. But Cramer's big fallacy is to imply that everyone should get in on this method of investing. Large funds can't easily exit a position when the momentum fails. If you get a large portion of big institutions crowded into this style it will be catastrophic. When a company misses a number, who will buy it? And when we eventually have a recession, and most companies lose earnings momentum, what will happen? The worst bear markets follow the best bull markets as more and more investors are sucked into "new-era" style investing, leaving lots of sellers and few buyers when the music stops. Bull markets create more and more "growth" investors, while Bear markets create "value" investors. It isn't any different this time.

To: J.Y. Wang who wrote (6730)	2/15/2000 6:07:00 PM
From: Kevin Podsiadlik	Respond to of 10293

But to insist that this brand of "fundamental analysis" is the new paradigm and will be the rule of law from now on is stretching it. Fair enough. What he's done is made the case. Obviously there are tons of people, including practically every manager of a "value" fund, who will disagree with him. I pointed it out as a nice starting point for what I think will become a major debate issue in the months to come. I wasn't expecting everyone or even anyone here to take it as gospel. Clearly I underestimated how much heat this would generate, so I'll refrain from extending this discussion further at this time.