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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (9980)	2/17/2000 1:13:00 PM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78663

Wallace: KSWS - I'm listening to CC replay and getting the message they are in for bad patch primarily due to shakeout in retailers...could take 18 months for workout on that - stock will probably bottom sometime in next year or so when all negatives discounted - probably not there yet. The coming quarter's outlook has soured with lower backlogs and orders and some inventory overhang. Most of shoe biz seems to be suffering quote.yahoo.com which confirms they're assessment that retailers are problem. Some of the players are 'blowing out' inventory which is potentially harmful to margins, however these guys say they will not be discounting agressively even if it prolongs inventory overhang and lowers unit volumes and shares - they cited prior multi-year period where they employed similar strategy. They're looking at making acquisitions, but won't buy a loser or overpay for a winner. I like the way they disclose. They seem to take straitforward 'Tell it like it is' approach which will cause difficulties to be discounted sooner rather than later. An important key to this group would appear to be to study the retailers and industry to get an idea of what's hurting them and when the shakeout may be ending. A reasonable strategy might be to buy on bad news dips, to average in over the next year with a 2 - 3 year time horizon. I own MAXS because of Jim's rec. but will study the industry a bit more before getting further involved. It's an approach avoidance thing with the shoe biz: I love bargains and there clearly are some, but I lack anything resembling a sense of fashion trends and so I'm at a disadvantage in selecting winners - thus will probably diversify if I get further involved. Sorry for long post, bob