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To: SLSUSMA who wrote (11702)2/16/2000 9:59:00 AM
From: BWAC  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 13953
 
<but meanwhile, the rest of the random stocks in the NASDAQ doubled, at least...>

Absolutely WRONG. WRONG. WRONG.

Every "other" randomly selected stock has not doubled. The NASDAQ average has. But one can hardly call that index an AVERAGE, when 10 stocks make up 75% of the average and the other 1000's make up the rest. (I will cite a source later)

Many, many good companies are valued like crap. While certain investors and fund managers chase performance at any risk. 99% of those stocks that doubled, as you say, will flame out and pratically disappear within 5 years. Because they are crap companies, valued on hype, .com mania, analyst baloney, and the greater fool theory.



To: SLSUSMA who wrote (11702)2/16/2000 10:48:00 AM
From: BWAC  Respond to of 13953
 
Sources: The Nasdaq 100 index used as the population.

1.)"The Nasdaq-100 Index© is a capitalization-weighted index composed of 100 of the largest non-financial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. "
cboe.com

Capitalization weighted = if MSFT is 9% of the Index total value, it's 9% of the total average.

2.)Here is a list of the components. cboe.com
Support your statement that each randomly selected stock "doubled".
The average doubled due to the performance of the "Pile In without regard to Price 10". The other ones did not.

3.)For a broader picture. Look at the capitalization weighted S&P 500.
"S&P 500 index funds do not necessarily reflect the broad market's returns. In 1998, 10% of the issues in the S&P 500 accounted for 87% of its total return for the year. breaking it down further, 24.9% of the index's return came from the 10 largest stocks. The 15 largest stocks contributed 51% of the index return."

In 1999 the void became even greater:

"MSFT, CSCO, SUNW, AOL, NT, and EMC returned 60% combined. Remove their performance from the index and the S&P 500 was down 5%" Conclusion: the "other 494 stocks" DID NOT RANDOMLY DOUBLE.

Source: Journal of Accountancy, January 2000