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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SargeK who wrote (60373)	2/16/2000 9:02:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Sarge, add the esteemed and venerable OEI to those numbers. biz.yahoo.com Been up all night working, must get some rest. See ya later. Bull

To: SargeK who wrote (60373)	2/16/2000 9:48:00 AM
From: SargeK	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Senior vice-president of Friede Goldman's offshore division, Ron Schnoor thinks: Friede Goldman can double their employees at the Pascagoula's East Yard by the end of the year. I did not find a date on the article. Looks like Old and New -- news. sunherald.com Big Dog: ?Just off the phone with FGH...seems they are talking about quite a number of projects.? Message 12869770 SargeK Phones ringing off the wall, New Orders, increasing manpower, "quite a number of projects", etc. Sounds like the TICKs really are WAKING this DOG (FGH) UP! >g<

To: SargeK who wrote (60373)	2/16/2000 10:02:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

DeepH20xSarge; re: Deepwater Rig utilization post ...first; one hell of a link ~! - great site. Thank You, this was a pleasant change from the spamwiches you've been carting out of late (VBG). Concerning our "spy vs. spy" - reparte` on FGH; this is the major issue imo. <<demand on its own, appears insufficient to keep the ultra deepwater fleet busy since the supply of units able to drill at these depths is set to increase from 39 to 58 over the next two years>> Quite simply - "it's the numbers - stupid" ie: the number of newbuilds "STILL" coming online is more than sufficient to supply demand going two years out. Sarge; I don't mean to keep hitting you over the head with this, but - analysts have spoken with the Intnl Oil's , the Super Independants - "the customers" for FGH's products (speaking Rigs not boats here) and there simply is NOT going to be virtually ANY money spent on major newbuild construction. There is excess capacity for two years forward in even the most bullish of environments. The second part of the "bear" arguement on FGH; is the unknown charges/losses and what divestitures that FGH will make on the shipbuilding side. The "unknown" is never good - especially so in this environment. FGH may bounce to $8ish - even $10 on a real sectorwide breakout rally; but I would continually be looking to sell into strength; untill a documented flow of business proves otherwise. Imo, FGH is not just making a bet (gambling against the grain - "against the grain" being, the known and acknowledged over capacity and known cap ex commitments which are NOT going to newbuilds; but it is making a "blind bet" - as no one knows as yet; what degree, if any; FGH will remain in the shipbuilding sector - and if they do; if this will even be a positive, or a negative ?!?!? - after all HLX was a sinking ship and HMAR went Bankrupt people ! - the damn shipbuilding sector was the only sector worse off than the fab's ! Sarge, imo - the smart play is to trade the range on FGH here and wait to see what rolls out "charges" and divesture-wise in the coming months. Let JL show us the money - then buy in Longterm - when orders , backlogs and EARNINGS support it - not before. If you want to buy on "expectations" - that great link you just supplied Sarge is BULLISH AS HELL for the Offshore Drillers which I have been pointing to. FLC is the clear winner for 98% ultilization as they have the most excess capacity and the double whammy is that it will come online at peak dayrates !!! DO the laggard and RIG the leader - make a nice threesome imo. RIG FLC DO, or the CXIPY's & OII's are the smart way to have been playing DEEPWATER of late imo... FGH's day may, or may not come - but, the riskless bet is when FGH "earns" its way back to $10-12; then jump aboard to a fundamentally supported ride to $20ish. All the risk with FGH is in the $6-$10 range here. We have numerous stocks with that same upside with no where near the risk that FGH has right here with all their "unknowns" and total lack of fundamental support to documented bottomline - orders, backlog and earnings growth. "THIS" Boom is different - FGH was in the sweetspot of the last cycle; benefiting from a once in a decade newbuild boom. That is over - in fact we are still seeing the buildout of that boom here and over the next year, or so. That is ALL that is keeping FGH afloat right here in fact - old buisiness from the last boom... Compare the forward looking expectations for income for the Drillers vs. FGH over the next 18 mos - and unemotionally decide where you want to place your bet ? ... and don't forget to factor in risk. DO's balance sheet vs. FGH's for example ? One can also margin DO here - safely increasing return 50% to doubling it - vs. margining FGH here of late - having been Suicide... Risk and the ability to intelligently manage and factor leverage (margin) risk for FGH vs. other sectors is what those aggresive "players" should be looking at. I margined a bit of FLC in the dip to the $11's - I'll certainly take on all comers on any bets of my 50% leveraged gains from $11ish FLC vs. $6 FGH ? - and I guarantee you - that I sleep much, much better... not to mention that $24 RIG back in the dogdays of when everyone said wait for the SLB dilution... what a gift that was. Or, $16-$18 BHI... or margining UCL P OXY here... lots of ways to exceed the potential upside of FGH and play the Boom, without the risk... FGH is a late cycle play - when they prove that they are once again a contender - and not a pretender - period. JL - balls in your court. Ciao~