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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (8239)	2/16/2000 12:48:00 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Katherine, Thanks for your comments: "I'm placing the start of the slump at the point where overcapacity hits the market and chip ASPs start to turn down." I'd be interested if you could provide any of your model's assumptions behind this prediction of overcapacity beginning later this year. I know you are close to the industry and certainly have a better feel for it than most of us. For starters, do you happen to know how many fabs will be coming on stream and how much they will increase aggregate capacity (in percentage terms)? Also will production capacity be increased by other means, such as larger wafers, and how much will that increase capacity? Secondly, what are your predictions on demand growth for the next 2 years? Are they substantially below the increase in capacity that you are forecasting? I know that predictions like this are parlous to make and I'm just asking for your expert opinion, realizing that nobody has a crystal ball. I know that others are predicting demand will grow fast enough to outstrip the added capacity and I'm trying to form a basis of comparison. Thanks, -Rob