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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8240)	2/16/2000 4:21:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Respond to of 10921

>>It is a broad based strong wave of demand accelerated by the switch from technology related buying into the "high gear" of capacity related buying. Yet this is all happening in a "controlled" manner not characterized by the previous upcycles "out of control" feeling.<< I've seen forecasts calling for as much as 50% equipment market growth in 2000. I've seen forecasts calling for some companies to spend 80% or more of their semiconductor revenues on new capacity. If that isn't "out of control," I don't know what is. Katherine

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (8240)	2/17/2000 1:40:00 PM
From: Q.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Looks like Robert Maire says, in effect, "this time it's different." I agree with Katherine that over the long term, capital spending by semiconductor companies is limited to a certain fraction of revenues. Where else is the money going to come from? Gottfried's chart shows very nicely that the ratio of capital spending to semiconductor sales is basically fixed, with some cyclicality imposed on it. geocities.com Right now, we just happen to be in one of the up cycles, which will soon show up on his chart. I don't see how this can change. I think Maire is wrong ... he's just getting carried away by the euphoria of hearing in Applied's cc that business is in a very nice part of the cycle right now.