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Strategies & Market Trends : Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (3058)	2/16/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8096

Dang, it's a mystery to me: all sell signals are eventually negated. I think the market is more mercurial, although you can get to know a stock and how it trades. For instance, all momentum is out of QCOM for the time being, maybe even a few quarters. It will come back because the underlying story is good. Meanwhile, NTAP and CREE are 2 darlings of the day, and BRCM ain't doin' bad either. Who would've known CREE would just go up up up up up up up, on what news? NTAP had expectations of great earnings and then even better than expected plus a split announced, so that makes sense. Psychology and perception and as Poet puts it momo de jour are so important--but even so they're unpredictable. Nobody knows when the tide will turn on CREE or when we'll stumble into another correction.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (3058)	2/16/2000 6:52:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 8096

jorj.... jdsu TA i simply use a slow stochastic set at 14....it is a fairly reliable indicator to call a trend reversal, it will establish direction, but not duration. used alone you will enter early, in the recent case of jdsu by two weeks....but selling atm or lower strikes in puts, the time decay offsets prem increase caused by stock selling down. jdsu puts sold on 2/2 with stock at 206 were peak prems, and actually went down as stock moved to 196. the reversal was obvious yesterday in the move from the 195 range. even in a stock with a deteriorating pattern. things don't go straight up or down. it's the movement within the range from overbought to oversold that allows the option position to be set. in a friendly market the stock may see 230.