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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (93657)	2/16/2000 8:38:00 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	Respond to of 1570661

Dan, thank you for showing us what your view of reality looks like: what happens if Willamette ships at 1.4GHZ, dependant on Rambus and a brand new chipset into a market populated with 1.8GHZ Thunderbirds and Mustangs? And the Thunderbirds use less expensive, more available DRAM, and also have an extensive, proven, set of available motherboards and chipsets? 1.8 GHz Athlons at Willamette's release. Amazing, Dan, amazing. Tenchusatsu

To: Dan3 who wrote (93657)	2/16/2000 8:46:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1570661

Re: "Total demand for PC CPUs is growing rapidly, but not exponentially. Even at a price of zero, demand would likely not exceed 200 million units next year. If Intel expects to gain a greater price (than zero) it will have to accept lower sales. However expensive and wonderful all those FABs may be, they aren't necessary. Perhaps they should be referred to as Albatross 1, Albatross 2, etc." You are correct to point out that Intel has more capacity the can be used by CuMine alone. But that just shows they can deliver Willamette and Mecred in volume this year. You can bet they are't bringing all this capacity on line just to let it gather dust. They know more than I do and they seem to believe the demand for all types of semiconductors is there. Re: "since they[AMD] can make money at $80 ASPs" Only when they are making lots of profits from flash and only when Intel is capacity constrained. Re: "In similar vein, what happens if Willamette ships at 1.4GHZ, dependant on Rambus and a brand new chipset into a market populated with 1.8GHZ Thunderbirds and Mustangs? And the Thunderbirds use less expensive, more available DRAM, and also have an extensive, proven, set of available motherboards and chipsets?" So far it looks like AMD has shot their wad with their 1.1GHz demo. Intel ran a 2 hour presentation on a (likely) 1.4GHz Willamette when AMD only showed a MHz meter on their Athlon demo. When there is reason to believe AMD can make those 1.8GHz Thunderbirds and Mustangs then we can talk about it. I think they shot their wad at 1.1GHz though some reports are appearing that they may do a 1.2GHz demo this week. I would take that as an admission that they can't keep up. We've only seen A-0 silicon and Willamette will get much faster. Athlon is far more mature and choking by comparison. Even CuMine is keeping pace with Athlon. As has been confirmed, Intel is shipping 1 GHz material to customers NOW. EP