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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike 2.0 who wrote (18157)	2/25/2000 6:41:00 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 54805

Re. CKFR Hi Mike, Because of the time pressure that I alluded to in the post to which you responded, my involvement with the net has lately been somewhat sporadic. Only now have I been able to review some earlier "lose threads". In rereading my post to which you responded, I can see how it would be possible to interpret it as prodding you for a Hunt report. That was not my intent and I apologize for not being clearer. One of my many failings is to exercise my fingertips without sufficient care for the possible interpretations. My post was a result of my frustration with myself in understanding CKFR. To the extent that I have any forte it is as my name implies in lurking, not in analysis. As Eastwood says "A man has got to know his limitations". As I stated CKFR is a pre-GG position for me; I have followed it (sometimes closely, sometimes from afar) since 1997. In trying to fit it into GG terms, superficially it is trivial. It provides a service - no gorilla. But empirically there are some sever BTE. Too many companies and consortia have attempted to compete and failed miserably. I am very frustrated in trying to fit CKFR into a GG framework - a gorilla/monkey, a king/prince, a godzilla/iguana. For me, it does not comfortably seem to fit any of the categories. Part of the reason for my frustration is my belief that now is an important time. There was a remarkable similarity between "Buy range" and the old CKFR thread. Both had a group of embattled believers in the company. By itself that is not unusual, but in both of these cases, if you listened carefully (and did some DD of your own) the story "hung together" and had the potential of being "really, really big". Both even had a "guru" that headed a fund and would at crucial times impart useful "inside" knowledge to soothe turbulent waters. We all are familiar with the "seminal event" that ended the Holy War for Q. Well I have a pronounced nagging suspicion that the recent Transpoint merger (buyout?) is a "seminal event" in CKFR's multiyear holy war with Microsoft. Perhaps a more accurate analogy is the purchase of Stratocom by Cisco that suddenly catapulted Cisco into a different scale of operations and left everyone else scrambling to catch up. Many of the newly formed "scan and pay" (or as some refer to them - scan and pray) companies will serve to popularize electronic bill paying, but they have neither the technology nor the experience to effectively (IMO) compete with CKFR. As I'm sure you know, Checkfree, FDC, Microsoft and Intuit have been called the Four Horseman of the Banking Apocalypse. With the first three now merged into one company and Intuit a "customer" of that company, we may be dimly seeing the outlines of the bill presentment and paying financial transactions in the internet age. Again my earlier post stemmed from my bewilderment and frustration with myself. In no way was I (or would I think of ) chiding you. Rather, any assistance that you can provide in increasing my understanding will be greatly appreciated. lurking... lurqer