Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (40543)	2/17/2000 10:47:00 PM
From: vampire	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, Isn't it true though that as a percent of GDP, the trade deficit has stayed rather small over the years?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (40543)	2/17/2000 10:55:00 PM
From: Dug	Respond to of 99985

Hi Zeev & thread, just need a ref point post on this thread, & won't have the time to reply though it may be against the rules, here goes. Cycle Pro is looking @ Nov. before a downward swing as of Feb 15, 00. Maybe a general consensus. geocities.com <I wonder if anyone else sees dangers in that situation.> Purely based on the S&P vs BB births. Yes Bush, or SAR dude :] SAR dude limits your thesis? My best regards, Dug

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (40543)	2/18/2000 1:03:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

FEATURE-Can't define genomics? Invest with caution NEW YORK, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Investors who need to look up genomics in a dictionary should watch out -- the stock market's hottest industry could burn them, experts warn. Genomics, the study of gene structure and function in order to develop drugs, is the latest concept attracting big bucks. Flush with money from Internet stocks, investors have driven shares of genomics companies to new highs this year on hopes health care will be revolutionized by what they do -- map, analyze and sell data about the human genome, the highly complex set of molecules that forms the blueprint for life. Some companies are also using their genomic discoveries to develop new drugs. But for investors who can't tell a nucleotide from a peptide, the genomics industry is a tricky niche within the biotech field, warned investment managers and company executives. ``I'm not really sure a lot of money coming into the group knows for sure what these companies are,' said Buck Phillips, managing director of the $200 million Vector Later-Stage Private Equity Fund. Spawned more than a decade ago by government researchers, genomics seeks to understand how genes cause disease. Gleaning that information could change medicine from a science of treating symptoms to preventing disease altogether, scientists and genomics companies hope. Genomics has helped drive the current surge in biotechnology stocks, which jumped over 6 percent in Thursday Nasdaq trade, and have notched the best gains of any Nasdaq sector so far this year. Genomics companies such as Human Genome Sciences Inc. (NasdaqNM:HGSI - news), Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:MLNM - news) and Celera Genomics (NYSE:CRA - news) have seen their stock prices rise exponentially the last year. ``Baby boomers have made their money in the Internet and now they want to live forever and they're turning to genomics for that. ... We need to manage those expectations,' Taylor Crouch, chief executive of privately held Variagenics Inc, told investors this week at an investor conference held by Bio, a U.S. biotechnology trade group. Among those expectations, investors expect genomics companies to make drugs that work better with fewer side effects and to trim drug development time, a process that now can take 10 years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Some of those hopes fell short in 1991-92 and in 1996, the last time biotechnology stocks turned hot. In the early 1990s, a slew of initial public offerings for companies like Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:REGN -news), Isis Pharmaceuticals (NasdaqNM:ISIP - news) and Ligand Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NasdaqNM:LGND - news) helped the sector take off, driving a rally which cooled after biotech firms failed to produce enough marketable products. And in 1996, positive results for a Lou Gehrig's disease treatment made by Cephalon Inc. (NasdaqNM:CEPH - news) spurred a springtime rally in the industry. That ended when regulators had doubts about a follow-up trial and the company's stock was hurt. The current rally involves a leaner, smarter biotech industry, experts said. Firms have consolidated and expanded the number of drug trials, giving them more chances to make successful drugs. This strategy has attracted big fund managers who normally shun small companies in favor of large pharmaceuticals. ``We've showed them that we can deliver,' said John McCamant of the Medical Technology Letter in California, which covers biotech. Genomics could deliver big. Already, researchers at Celera Genomics, a division of PE Corp. (NYSE:PEB - news), said they believe they have sequenced about 97 percent of human genes. The company expects to complete the rest this year. ``You've got the human genome sequenced. Now the issues are translating that into drugs at an accelerated pace, and integrating the disparate data sources and tools,' said Kenneth Sorensen, portfolio manager of the Life Sciences Group at Muzinich & Co. Inc, who attended the biotech conference. He said two firms skilled at that integration are NetGenics Inc. and Physiome Sciences Inc., privately held companies soon to go public. Fund managers pointed out several concerns among genomics companies. Some managers said they were leery of genomics companies whose sole business is selling gene data to drug makers. While winning fees for those sales, they said the companies give up valuable information that could lead to profitable drugs. Better that they diversify by retaining some of their knowledge about genes and gene function to order to develop their own drugs, experts said at the New York conference. Others said companies that make software to allow different gene databases to be used together are the wave of the future. Another unknown is how successfully companies will patent human genes and the proteins they produce. Analysts said they remain uncertain how the courts will define what constitutes a ``genetic patent' because the field is so new. For all that uncertainty, the high-priced genomics stocks -- a few of which have jumped from single digits to well-over $200 a share -- may be overpriced. ``Genomics is absolutely fundamental to the future of health care but the actual payoff is still a number of years away,' said Phillips of Vector Fund Management. ``At these valuations, it's a high risk endeavor.'