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To: mst2000 who wrote (3369)2/18/2000 10:00:00 AM
From: Nanchate  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4443
 
The New Improved Game of Insider Trading

Fortune magazine published a series on the "new insider trading" in May of this year. The perfect antidotes for these abuses are inherent in the features of the VWAP© trading system, especially its guarantees of complete anonymity and no market impact.

In this three part series, Fortune magazine uncovers the widespread "new insider trading" that preys on leakage of information relating to big stock orders. Ashton's VWAP© trading system has been specifically designed to protect its participants against such insider trading abuses. In approving the rule change filing, the SEC described the VWAP© trading system in the following manner: "the essence of the System is its anonymity....Participants will enjoy complete end-to-end anonymity in their Orders and Commitments; as a result, their proprietary trading strategies will not be revealed to other market participants....[t]he Commission recognizes that investors desire to trade large blocks of securities anonymously and free of the price movements that often accompany such block-sized trades at the day's volume weighted average price, [the System] will be able to better accommodate the needs of investors."

The New Improved Game of Insider Trading

A decade after Ivan Boesky, insider trading has evolved into a subtle, efficient--even routine--racket that preys on mutual funds and other institutions. Regulators just shrug, and meanwhile the insiders are cheating you.

Less than an hour before the closing bell, a wealthy young Manhattan day trader we'll call "Billy" got a call from the trading desk of a major brokerage firm. A big client was buying a million shares of Network Associates. Did Billy want to sell? The caller knew quite well that Billy did not have a million shares of Network Associates lying around. And Billy knew perfectly well that the call was not really about filling the client's order. Telling his contact that he would sell shares to him at the close, Billy quickly bought 40,000 Network Associates, anticipating that the client's million-share buy order would cause the stock to rise. It did. By the end of the day, Billy had unloaded his shares at a profit of around $80,000. Not bad for less than an hour's work--as long as you're willing to ignore that Billy and his pal had just committed a crime.

To most people, "insider trading" conjures images of Ivan Boesky sending briefcases of cash to M&A lawyer Martin Siegel in exchange for a heads-up on approaching takeovers. Yes, some characters still smuggle information from within a company. But a new generation of traders has discovered there are better ways to make a dishonest living.

The classic form of insider trading has been joined in recent years by a smaller, quicker, harder-to-detect version. Instead of trying to make a killing on a few big trades in advance of headline-grabbing mergers, today's inside traders take small, sneaky positions ahead of routine "buy" and "sell" orders placed by institutional investors--and repeat the technique hundreds or thousands of times in the course of a career. To pay for the tips, they typically direct a series of trades to their informants days or weeks later. The resulting commissions may lack the glamour and melodrama of passing a satchel of unmarked bills. But should anyone get nosy, commissions are much easier to explain away.

At its heart, the new insider trading is simply an adaptation of the classic racket known as front-running (so named because inside traders would literally run up to specialists on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and place orders moments "in front of" a big institution). Just by virtue of supply and demand, an institutional block trade will almost always move the price of a stock anywhere from a few cents to a few dollars. A seasoned day trader or hedge fund manager can easily turn a quick, low-risk profit on such blips--as long as he knows the order is coming. "The order is the inside information today," says Jack Morton, a former trader and past chairman of the New York Stock Exchange's Institutional Traders Advisory Committee. Of course, insiders' profits come out of other investors' pockets. Billy's gain on Network Associates, for example, came at the expense of the brokerage's client, which paid a higher price for the stock than it would have had its confidential trading intentions not been betrayed.

No one is sure, of course, exactly how much all this goes on. The SEC declined to hazard a guess. ("We don't do much in that line of work--estimating how many violations of the securities laws go undetected," a spokesperson said.) But many Wall Street veterans say it's widespread. "There's a third world out there of small trading firms, particularly in New York, that make a living off this kind of information," says Morton Cohen, general partner of the hedge fund Clarion Partners. One New York Stock Exchange specialist told Fortune that he regularly sees stock and option activity skyrocket in advance of big orders. "The natural assumption," he says, "is that someone made 'the wrong call' "--jargon for a tip-off, accidental or otherwise, to a front-runner. Information seeps out of even the Street's most prestigious brokerages. "It involves the best and the brightest," says one partner in an institutional brokerage firm. Adds one former principal of a day-trading outfit, who watched a couple of the firm's traders get a dozen "wrong calls" a day from a hallowed Wall Street partnership: "The regulatory organizations, they're like five years behind the times."

Some Street veterans say that this sort of front-running has been going on for decades--just another of the schemes that inevitably arise when aggressive young men and lots of money are in close proximity. (See, for example, the tangentially related NYSE floor-broker scandal now in the headlines.) In testimony before Congress ten years ago, Morton, then newly retired from his job as head of Bank of Boston's trading desk, warned that "front-runners have been operating with impunity. Sizable sums of capital are continuously transferred from pension funds to these persons operating on privileged or inside information." A 1996 SEC report on Nasdaq price fixing digressed to note that trading desks regularly share clients' secrets. "Market makers may at times be tempted to overlook their obligation to deal fairly with their customers," said the report. That seems a rather gentle way of putting it.

In fact, today's insider game includes several new twists. Traditional frontrunners, for example, tend to swap tips with each other or trade for their own (usually camouflaged) accounts. Today's operators understand that if you front-run your own client and slip the winnings into your own pocket, even the woefully understaffed SEC might catch on. It's much safer to market the information to a third party under the pretense of a routine sales call, and then collect a kickback in the form of seemingly innocent commissions later on.

Recent changes in the market have only multiplied the temptation for traders to misbehave. For one thing, the largest institutions are more likely than in the past to deal in monster blocks of 250,000 shares or more. Such orders now account for 76% of their volume, up from 20% five years ago, says Wayne Wagner, president of Plexus Group, a trading research service. In addition, the growth in rapid-fire trading systems has created a new class of investors looking to make a buck on quick in-and-out moves. Among them are individual day traders like Billy, a species of investor that barely existed ten years ago. Even more important in this hyperactive group are day-trading hedge funds. Principals and traders at several Wall Street firms identify these "fast money" funds as the real heavyweights of the new insider-trading fraternity.

Hedge funds, essentially unregulated mutual funds for the rich, have exploded in assets in this decade from 500 funds with some $20 billion in assets to 3,200 with $320 billion, according to TASS Management. Day-trading funds tend to have relatively few assets and make up only a small part of that universe, but the category has seen dramatic growth in the past two years. (To be sure, only a minority of the fast-money outfits actively seek illegal information.)

So why would a brokerage trading desk betray a huge mutual fund client to attract business from a little hedge fund? Because the latter may well be a more generous customer. The average mutual fund, big as it is, doesn't turn over its portfolio even once a year. And many funds, under pressure from shareholders and directors, concentrate on keeping commissions low. In contrast, fast-money hedge funds generate tremendous commissions, either by ripping through trades or by paying an extremely generous commission rate. Certain day-trading funds reputedly offer as much as 12 cents a share for especially good "service," compared with the institutional average of 4.6 cents. "On Wall Street, you pay for information," says Morton. "The better the information, the more you pay."

Front-running's profit potential lies in what's called market impact--the tendency of big buy orders to push up a stock's price and of big sell orders to push it down. Research by the Plexus Group found that a stock moves around 2% over the course of an extended institutional order--even more in the case of an illiquid stock or an especially large trade. After the order is filled, the price typically drifts back toward its pre-trade level.

Part of the market impact is simply a matter of supply and demand. The rest is created by traders, insider-informed or not, scrambling to cash in. Heavy buying by front-runners, for example, can move the stock even before the institutional trade hits the system. Legitimate day traders can have a similar, if delayed, effect. With help from software programs like FirstAlert, they sift publicly available volume and price data for evidence of institutional trading. When they find it, they jump on to ride the stock's move. (As long as the information is public, it's all perfectly legal.) The uninformed trader is at a distinct disadvantage, however, because he doesn't know when the institution's order will end. The front-runner, on the other hand, knows what's behind the stock's move and has a better chance of closing his position near the peak of the market impact.

Billy says he gets tips daily, typically from Ivy League business school pals or colleagues at former Wall Street jobs. "The best calls may only last about two seconds," says Billy. His trading-desk contacts tell him what stocks a big customer is buying or selling in bulk. A few even name the client. "Some people are more blatant than others," he says. "They might say, 'Fidelity is selling two million shares today. Get short.' I've heard that sort of thing, but it's rare." Usually the message is more guarded, agrees a hedge fund trader who knows how the game works. "Maybe he'll say, 'I've got an order for 100,000. You buy 10,000.' Or maybe he'll just say, 'You know, I really like GE this morning.' "

If the tip produces a profit, as it does about three-quarters of the time, a certain etiquette applies in making the kickback. To avoid suspicion, the tippee generally makes the illegal trade through a broker other than the tipster. He then may wait a few days to place his payoff trades. The players could negotiate a higher than usual commission rate (say, 9 cents a share) on their next trades, or the tippee could simply send his informant extra orders at the regular rate. "If there's a stock I want, I'll buy it through [my contact]," explains Billy of his payback protocol. "If not, I'll just have him buy me some random stock, and I'll take an offsetting short position." To pay for the particularly successful tip about Network Associates, for instance, Billy says he routed his accomplice a series of trades worth some $10,000 in commissions. (To make it easier to pay these commissions, Billy set up a special institutional custodial account that allows him to keep his money at one brokerage firm but execute his trades all over town.)

Thanks to such arrangements, the modern inside trader leaves very few tracks. "What you've outlined is a classic case of insider trading, more specifically front-running," says Rob Khuzami, chief of the Securities and Commodities Fraud Task Force in the U.S. attorney's office in Manhattan. "But it doesn't jump out at you. Nothing about the order-flow method of kickback would look suspicious unless you knew it was part of a scam."

Although regulators may have a hard time detecting the new insider trading, most institutions--the scam's primary targets--know it well. But they don't like discussing it outside their circle. Says one trader who works for an institutional broker: "Off the record: Yeah, absolutely this kind of trading happens.... It probably happens every day. On the record: No, I don't think it happens. Absolutely not." An institution's instinct is to protect its own orders, not to reform Wall Street. "As a community, we haven't really tried to address this," says Kevin Cronin, head of listed equity trading at AIM Management Group. "I think there are a lot of smart people on our side who take a lot of steps to make sure that their order flow is not being compromised.... But there are a lot of people who aren't ... concerned enough really to figure it out." According to Harold Bradley, senior vice president with American Century mutual funds, some institutions tolerate traffic in whispers about big trades because they like getting the skinny themselves--not for day trading, but rather to take the market's temperature before bringing a big order of their own. But of course information usually runs both ways. "The institutions all think they're getting info on somebody else, and nobody gets information on them," Bradley says.

Naturally, institutions do their best to hide their intentions. The standard method is to break an order into small pieces and spread it out over time, and sometimes among several trading desks. In other cases, institutions seek refuge in electronic trading systems such as Instinet or OptiMark, where there are no human intermediaries to leak information.

Some take more elaborate precautions. Cronin protects his orders by insisting that desk traders who handle AIM's business not only refrain from covering fast-money hedge funds but also avoid even sitting next to those who do. American Century's Bradley says he's had a trader fired for being too chatty, and Andrew Brooks, head of equity trading at T. Rowe Price, says he has put whole firms in what's known as "the penalty box"--freezing them out of Price's order flow for several months--to protest leakage or other inappropriate behavior on their trading desks.

Some inside traders feel there is no real crime involved here, at least none that regulators would ever bother to pursue. And in fact almost no one has been prosecuted for this kind of insider trading. But the law is clear: In 1997 the Supreme Court endorsed the "misappropriation theory," which makes an insider out of anyone who misuses information taken from someone to whom he or she owes a duty of trust. As for the tippee, the law says he is guilty if he acts on information he knew was supposed to be secret.

Some people might agree--particularly in the middle of a roaring bull market--that what Billy and his pals are doing is nothing to get worked up about. But if you own shares in a mutual fund, a 401(k), or even a large hedge fund, chances are you have been cheated by a front-runner. At its basic level, an inside tip on an institution's trading plans amounts to stealing from that institution. While the theft may be small on any given trade, the constant nibbling at the margins of trades can reduce a fund's annual rate of return.

Moreover, front-running is only part of a larger problem. Traders who solicit order information are typically on the make for all sorts of other privileged tidbits as well: advance notice of analyst upgrades, security offerings, mergers, and so on. Says Nasser Arshadi, a University of Missouri finance professor who has studied insider trading: "The law ... has not been effective in deterring what we call 'outsider inside trading.' " That's not surprising: Institutions have generally taken every measure to evade front-runners except the one that those outside Wall Street culture would consider the most obvious: alerting the authorities.

That's not doing the markets any favor. There's more at issue here than whether some operator chisels a few points on an institutional trade and ends up picking a few anonymous shareholders' pockets. As in the Boesky and Michael Milken scandals of the 1980s, and the ongoing investigations of floor brokers on the NYSE, the real danger is more abstract but ultimately more fundamental. Stealing information undermines the integrity and fairness of the markets. And that matters.



To: mst2000 who wrote (3369)2/18/2000 5:59:00 PM
From: Nanchate  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4443
 
Process-driven -VS- Charismatic Trading

phlx.com

This paper contrasts the performance of a process-driven, or na‹ve approach to trading, with a charismatic, or beat-the-dealer approach to trading. Briefly, we find that a na‹ve approach to trading is substantially less costly than alternatives. The results suggest the opportunity for a new financial product that would enable liquidity motivated traders to trade at the Volume Weighted Average Price for a security over a particular time frame. Our findings suggest that institutional traders can exploit the optionality inherent in the trading process.

Chapter I
Introduction


Many investors believe that securities prices are informationally efficient. That is, stock picking and market timing raise costs without any corresponding increase in returns or reductions in risk. Those investors economize on information gathering costs and trading costs by purchasing index funds. However, there is currently no really good alternative for investors who believe that trading processes are relatively efficient.

There are many investors who do not believe it is possible to ?game? the trading process; that is take systematic advantage of stock price incongruities. Further they recognize there may be significant costs associated with a market-maker?s perception that they may be trying to ?game? the system. Currently, there is no trading process geared to the beliefs of those who are willing to be passive traders. They can try to synthesize a na‹ve trading methodology by breaking down large orders into smaller ones and executing them more or less randomly over the course of the trading day (or days), but such investors cannot simply enter an order that announces that they are pure liquidity traders who should not pay anything for the adverse selection prospect that the market-maker perceives.

This paper examines the desirability of being able to enter an order specifying that the price an investor is willing to pay is the volume weighted average price (VWAP - see Appendix 1 for computational details). Hypothetically, an investor should be able to contact a broker before trading begins and enter an order to buy or sell a block of stock at the VWAP for that day. The challenge for whomever must fill the order is trading in small enough quantities and frequently enough over the course of the day to achieve a VWAP fill at a small expected profit.

We term na‹ve trading, such as VWAP trading, process driven trading. We characterize trading that attempts to ?game? the trading activity as charismatic trading. Process-driven trading relies on fixed rules such as those used to approach the VWAP. Charismatic trading, unlike process-driven trading, relies on the trader?s genius, intuition and information to identify buy and sell opportunities.

The contra-party of the charismatic trader has to extract sufficient trading concessions to compensate for the possibility that information or intuitions are correct. Failure to extract extraordinary concessions from a charismatic trader exposes the contra-party to the economic devastation of a systematic adverse selection in the mix of trades in any particular session. One way for the investor to avoid being mistaken for a charismatic trader, thereby being assessed a premium to execute, is to announce to the world that no information or intuitions have influenced the trade, in effect, to become a process-driven trader.

Although it is possible to identify an infinite number of trading processes, this paper focuses on two processes that have a wide following: (1) trading at the volume weighted average price of the day (VWAP) , and (2) trading at the closing price on the day of the trade. The day?s VWAP provides a reasonable proxy for the price sought by uninformed passive traders because it incorporates price and volume information from the transactions executed during the measurement period. The VWAP for the day?s trading in a security has been proposed as a benchmark for estimating execution costs of listed securities . The close on the day of the trade is often sought by mutual funds and others that price their portfolios at the close of the day for purposes of valuing their investors? positions.

To compare the results from trading rules to charismatic trades, we evaluate the trading costs of a group of large institutional investors. By examining trade confirmations for these investors, we can estimate the impact of costs related to trading risk, defined here as intra-day price volatility, on seven of the largest domestic institutional investors during the third quarter of 1996 .

Note that we do not consider the opportunity costs of delayed trades. These are often measured as the difference between a security?s price at the time a decision to transact was made and the price at which a transaction actually occurred. We believe that this measure fails to capture the true economic nature of the net costs of a delayed or abandoned trade. Specifically, we contend that among the trading operations of institutional investment managers (?buy side? as opposed to ?street side? traders), a trade now competes with itself at a later time. Increasingly, buy side traders employ hedging techniques for the purpose of minimizing the adverse impact of a trending market. The simplest and most intuitive of these strategies are dollar neutral strategies that engage in selling securities to raise cash to buy securities.

Implicit in such strategies is the option to delay, alter, or cancel an order to trade. If new information arrives prompting the investor to cancel a trade after an original delay and before execution, then the delay actually produces a benefit.

This immensely complicates the measurement of opportunity cost. For instance, it is easy to measure the cost of a complete transaction program. Suppose the prevailing price at the time of the decision to buy was $30 and the average trade price was $31. The opportunity cost is this $1 per share less any market impact cost. This tells us something about the cost of a complete transaction. However, when there are delays in trading, some trade programs may be abandoned owing to new information. In evaluating trading costs for an investment organization, the benefit of having the option to abandon a trading program that itself was going to be stretched out due to possible market impact costs ought to be netted against the opportunity costs. Collecting the data to measure these net opportunity costs requires clear documentation of the trading decisions and portfolio management decisions that follow an order to trade from conception to execution. Not all of these decisions and their underlying rationale are preserved in a form amenable to analysis, in part, because there is often some overlap between the discretion of the institutional trader and the portfolio manager with respect to the treatment of an order. Thus our focus remains on market impact costs.

We find that simple process-driven trading strategies available from contemporary electronic trading facilities can add value as tools in the trading arsenal. After looking at actual transaction costs (for some combination of process-driven and charismatic trades), we evaluate the trading profit potential in charismatic strategies that are triggered by the day?s first favorable tic supported by institutional volume after 10:00 AM and before noon. The na‹ve strategy we model participates after the first favorable tic in successive institutional sized trades to fill an order. We demonstrate that for this strategy to succeed the trader must be correct in his/her opinion of the day?s price trend at least 38 percent more often than s/he is wrong for buy transactions and 89 percent more often than s/he is wrong for sell transactions.

Chapter ll
Trading Motivations: Information and Liquidity


At any time, traders are held hostage to the prices offered in the market. If they are what Jack Treynor calls information traders , they seek to have their order filled as quickly as possible because the value of the information they process decays rapidly during the period when news is disseminated. Note that orders to buy and sell securities may, themselves, be construed by market participants to be information depending on the size of position held or divested and the reputation for knowledge of the principal[s].

Liquidity traders, on the other hand, are sensitive to price. They trade on the basis of fundamental analysis at opportune instances. During the trading day, it is the liquidity traders who provide shares to and cash out the information traders. This is not to say that liquidity traders represent charitable institutions - for their willingness to transact, they expect to extract a premium sufficient to offset their losses when information trader(s) actually have accurate information.

Information traders go to great lengths to masquerade as liquidity traders in order to avoid the larger price concessions market makers try to levy on information traders. Thus, information traders gravitate towards trading facilities offering anonymity. Because trading at the VWAP signals nothing to the market place about the existence of proprietary information, it provides an advantage to the information trader: there is no reason for the contra-party to adjust the price in anticipation of being ?taken? by the information trader.

Chapter Ill
Trading Costs


The ideal transaction cost measure specifies the difference between the actual price at which an order is filled (including commission costs) and the price at which a na‹ve trader can expect to execute the trades that fill the order . A na‹ve investor has no prior information or opinion about market prices during the time the order is being filled on the trading desk. Costs associated with trading securities are of the same order of magnitude as investment management fees. The challenge to fiduciaries for natural owners of securities lies in finding cost-efficient trading strategies that do not compromise investment performance.

The VWAP has appeal both as a trading benchmark and as a trading process because it represents an attainable price available to the na‹ve trader. The computation is similar to that which brokers use to price orders filled by executing multiple trades. When orders are filled from multiple trades, the price confirmed to the customer is the volume weighted average of the prices for the specific trades executed to fill the order. Also, when brokers fill orders in a single security on the same day by executing multiple trades for multiple clients, brokers place the trades used to execute these orders in an average price account. The price confirmed to the client(s) represents the volume weighted average price of the trades residing in this average price account.

To be fair, VWAP is not universally regarded as the premier method for measuring market impact costs. Keim and Madharan point out that the measure can be gained; for large trades in illiquid stocks, the VWAP and the transaction price should be virtually identical. But this ?game? can only be successful if the portfolio manager is only being measured on transaction costs. To the extent that success in this game contributes to poor overall portfolio performance, investment managers will choose not to play it. Lastly, note that the cost of gaming the VWAP typically exceeds the economic benefits that can be derived.

Chapter IV
Stock Trading


NYSE specialists and their counterparts in other markets seek to impose order on the markets by making stabilizing trades for their own accounts, acting as the contra side of small orders as the institutional trader of last resort. These market makers represent the promise of their exchanges to provide orderly markets, particularly in congestion. It is this promise that makes possible institutional investment in the stock market under the ?prudent man rule? codified in Federal and State law. To help maintain orderly markets, floor brokers and the ?upstairs? market makers have reason to cooperate with the specialist and his counterparts on other exchanges. Cao, Choe and Hatheway note that the specialist operates as a dealer, giving up some profitable opportunities in return for the specialist franchise and the informational advantages attendant to the franchise. The specialist quotes bids and offers for stock based on knowledge of the limit order book (which he is responsible for maintaining), the mood of the crowd, and his own inventory position and risk-taking objectives. The specialist has a fiduciary responsibility to represent the limit order book ahead of his own trades.

The NYSE monitors the performance of specialist firms to determine the extent to which they fulfill their obligations. Cao, Choe and Hatheway report the success of the specialists in this endeavor.

Exhibit 1: Specialist Obligations

Demand for special handling of complex trades has led to the emergence of the ?upstairs? market. In effect, these ?alternate market makers? provide liquidity to the natural owners of large security positions by finding the other side of trades or by committing firm capital. Natural owners of securities seek out the ?upstairs? market to design and execute complex trades with unusual characteristics involving size, terms, immediacy or applicable regulations.

Trading is a competitive activity in which success can be measured either with respect to price or immediacy of execution. Traditionally, portfolio managers and their traders have measured immediacy in minutes from the time the order is placed. As portfolio managers have become more sophisticated and their portfolio requirements more complex, immediacy has come to mean the minimum number of days required to trade an institutional position without roiling the market(s) in which the securities trade (see Exhibit 2) . Data in Exhibit 2 indicate that institutional investors create multiple orders (reflected in the trade confirmations) from positions they seek to acquire or divest, imputed by consecutive trades in a stock.

Liquidity groups are formed by ranking the 8000 most active stocks by market capitalization into 80 groups of 100 stocks. Liquidity Group 1 consists of the 100 largest stocks by market capitalization Liquidity Group 2 the next hundred largest and so forth.

Transaction confirmations from seven large institutional traders during the third quarter of 1996 indicate that sells were more costly to execute than buys. Appendix 2 reports market impact of their trades by liquidity group, formed by rank ordering stocks according to market capitalization as a proxy for liquidity such that the first liquidity group contains the 100 most liquid stocks and the eightieth liquidity group contains the 100 least liquid stocks. In general, transaction costs are higher for less liquid stocks. Further examination of the confirmation data for the most liquid stocks suggests that cost is related to size of confirm and immediacy. Buy orders are smaller and traders take more time to execute them than sell orders.

Orders For Groupings of The Most Liquid Stocks

Chapter V
Institutional Trading Risk


Intra-day price volatility is an important part of trading risk. The day?s high and low prices for trades in which institutional traders can participate set the boundaries for trading risk. Scale economies in clearing and settlement prevent institutions from filling large orders with huge numbers of very small trades. For purposes of estimating the extremes of trading risk we assume that institutional orders in the 400 most liquid stocks (Liquidity Groups 1 through 4) are filled with trades of 2,500 or more shares.

When computing trading risk in Exhibit 3, we consider only trades of 2,500 or more shares. The risk that traders fear most is to buy at or near the high on a day the market rises and sell at or near the low on a day that the market falls. Investors who acquire the worst 5 percent of prices during the days when the closing price differs from the opening price have orders filled at prices that average $2.50 or more away from the day?s best 5 percent of prices. Market trend appears to have little effect on the magnitude of the variation in the high-low range for up-symbol days (days where the closing price for a stock exceeds the open for a stock) and down-symbol days (days were the open price for a stock exceeds its close).

Chapter VI
Trading Performance of Large Institutional Investors


I n aggregate, institutional investors do not obtain prices that are more favorable than the volume weighted average price of the day on which the trade takes place. To analyze the trading performance of institutional investors, we examined the trading of seven large institutional investors during the 3rd quarter of 1996. These investors initiated $151.2 billion of trades. Our examination of the trade confirmation records reveals that buy transactions execute at prices that, on average, exceed the VWAP by 7.2 basis points and sell transactions execute at prices that, on average, fall below the VWAP by 11.2 basis points . These confirmations report trade executions at prices that were less advantageous to the executing institutions than the VWAP by $135.7 million.

Professional traders have differential results even with most liquid stocks. Among the seven institutional traders the average difference between best and worst institutions with respect to aggregate market impacts for buy transactions exceeded $0.05 per share and the difference between best and worst aggregate market impacts for sell transactions exceeded $0.06 per share. Higher commissions did not appear to purchase better executions. Some of the differences in transaction costs may be related to the mix of securities traded, but the bulk of the trades, shares, and dollars were traded in the most liquid stocks.

Transaction Costs Comprise a Significant Portion of Investment Performance

Transaction costs are the price concessions required to attract the opposing side of a trade. A significant portion of these costs are the commissions incurred to pay for brokerage services. In our examination of the trading of seven large institutional investors during the 3rd quarter of 1996, we found that commission costs averaged 11.5 basis points per share and market impact costs averaged 9 basis points per share (see Exhibit 5). Most of the commission costs were incurred for transactions in listed securities . Only a small number of OTC agency trades incurred commission costs.

Chapter VII
Testing a Trading Rule


One way to mimic the behavior of a charismatic trader is to assume that such a trader would place orders after seeing a favorable institutional sized trade. Further, we assume that such a trader would accumulate shares from successive institutional sized orders until the order is complete. We assume an institutional order size of 12,000 shares. To model this behavior, the first institutional sized trade (of at least 2,500 shares occurring on or after 10:00 AM) priced below the prior day?s close begins the sequence of buy transactions; and the first institutional sized trade above the prior day?s close (on or after 10:00 AM) begins the sequence of sell transactions. This process allows the charismatic trader to wait for the market to respond to the opening trade. Our charismatic trader is assumed to acquire 12,000 shares by participating in successive trades of at least 1000 shares until the order is filled. Although this assumption imposes na‹ve constraints, it recognizes that traders cannot own the last sale, but only the future sales.

To analyze the results, we segment our sample of the 400 most liquid listed stocks for 17 stock days (during the period May 7 to June 8, 1998) into up symbol-days, unchanged symbol-days and down-symbol-days. Using the VWAP as a benchmark our charismatic buyer and our charismatic seller incur substantially greater market impact costs resulting from an incorrect market direction prediction than value added from a correct prediction.

Our simulated charismatic trader adds value over the VWAP of 33 basis points from buys on a down symbol days and incurs a market impact cost with respect to the VWAP of 46 basis points from sells on down symbol days (see Exhibit 8). Conversely, this same trader adds 24 basis points of value over the VWAP from sells on up symbol-days and incurs market impact costs of 45 basis points from buys on up symbol days.

Assuming trades only on days when the market closes at prices that are different from the open, our charismatic trader with equal dollar amounts of buy and sell orders for liquid stocks would have to guess the direction of a stock correctly at least 38 percent (abs(-0.4546/0.3293)-1) more frequently than guessing wrong just to break even on the buys. To break even on the sells the charismatic institutional trader would have to guess right 89 percent more frequently than guessing wrong.

Relaxing the assumption that the charismatic trader would participate in successive trades as an automaton has little impact on the asymmetric payoff structure associated with trading decisions that depend on an opinion about the direction of the market. Appendix 5 presents the results where charismatic traders are allowed a random draw from the sequence of trades following a favorable tic on institutional volume.
Exhibit 8: Execution Costs of Modeled Charismatic Trades

Chapter VIII
Conclusions


Trading costs have a significant impact on investing. The failure to manage trading costs decreases returns to investors and may incur the ire of the Department of Labor ERISA oversight officials as it has been more than 10 years since the DOL issued the memorandum clarifying a plan sponsor?s obligation to attempt to acquire ?best execution ?. In an environment where mutual fund managers over the last 10 years have had aggregate performance below the S & P 500 index funds by amounts ranging from 21 basis points to 281 basis points (with the possible exception of mid-cap growth funds), trading costs become a significant factor .

There is a marked pattern of increasing interest in controlling transaction costs. Some large institutional investment managers have adopted strategies to seek trading profits that will, in part or in full, offset trading costs. Given the significance of trading costs to investment performance, we expect the lines between trading and investing to become increasingly blurred in practice. In part this will be due to evolving notions of the value of the option implicit in the orders that hit the trading desk.

Large institutional trading desks receive orders to buy some securities and sell different securities. Typically, the sell orders generate the cash to fund the buy orders. Optionality comes from:

1. The ability to modify the list of securities and the number of shares contained in buy orders, sell orders, or both to either maintain dollar neutral positions or attempt to profit from a trending market (thus netting against opportunity costs);

2. The ability to extend the time over which an order is filled thereby changing the distribution of prices to which the order is exposed;

3. The ability to execute significant components of buy or sell orders from cross trade opportunities; and

4. The ability to execute buy orders or sell orders from principal trading accounts (subject to significant regulatory constraint among ERISA funds).


In effect, trading costs arise when there is a mismatch between the dollar volume or risk of buy orders and sell orders. Under these circumstances, trading costs become the cost of properly hedging this mismatch or buying insurance to cap losses resulting from this mismatch. Note that brokers offering to trade packages at some benchmarked price are bundling insurance and brokerage services in a single priced transaction.

Heretofore, brokers and securities dealers have captured the value of these embedded options and insurance premia. They have profited handsomely. New instruments such as the VWAP trading facility proposed by the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, and the emerging electronic trading facilities such as Instinet, ITG Posit, the Arizona Stock Exchange, Lattice and Optimark, make feasible the implementation of trading strategies that will enable institutions to realize the value of the option to trade. Thus, institutions have an opportunity to dramatically improve returns on assets for which they serve as fiduciaries. Widespread use of charismatic strategies is not likely to survive. The aggregate market impact cost of approximately 5 basis points associated with trades in listed, mostly liquid stock incurred by seven of the largest institutional investors suggests that the prescience required to predict the direction of the market for specific stocks or portfolios lies beyond mortal means.



To: mst2000 who wrote (3369)2/18/2000 8:22:00 PM
From: Rob W  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4443
 
Is kinda interesting how AG can spot a 144 filer, but miss the trend in institutional buying or give it no weight. One that is starting to catch my eye is Barclays Banks. I noticed in the Dec information they have again increased their position up to 762,000 shares. Several others that have reported more current information have shown modest increases.





To: mst2000 who wrote (3369)2/26/2000 10:54:00 AM
From: Rob W  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4443
 
Interesting place to visit. Be sure to read the text at the bottom of the filters when you click them on. Of course an anonymous ATS renders them moot of course.

livewiretrader.com