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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (60533)	2/18/2000 10:24:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Best of all worlds ... coiled spring being compressed. We have reached phase I of Boom 2000 imho - that being that Oil & Gasoline Prices are now "THE" story. Every evening news magazine has a story on Oil, OPEC, or gasoline prices. Clinton is questioned on Oil/Gasoline prices at every appearance. Greenspan fielded numerous questions on Oil Prices at Humphrey/Hawkins etc. Now we are also getting pundit after pundit and article after article talking about the historically low valuation multiples of present in the Oilpatch. ... sooner, or later; the "mouth breathers" will put "2 & 2" together and realize: ... alltime high commodity prices vs. alltime low shareprice valuation multiples = a screaming buy. For now, the coiled spring just keeps getting compressed. Comments on UTI were right - go back and look at some charts from 1997 - unbelieveable - look like .coms stocks. Check out VTS , or UTI , CXIPY was a monster too... $2-$3 days in a row.... Nat Gas stocks here; given the fundamentals of growing demand, the switch-over demand driver due to higher crude prices on a historic basis and the extremely positive supply levels make the NBL EOG BR XTO's of the world - pure anomalies and money in the bank. These Nat Gas pureplays represent a bit of a hedge against OPEC doing anything stupid, or the market reacting stupidly. Another angle; is the crude leveraged names and those who will reap the greatest leverage to sustained crude prices - with VPI totally unhedged and highly leveraged to crude & stocks like NEV whose poor hedges will come off soon and highly leveraged balanced producers like UPR PXD OEI - will really be leveraged to the upside if Crude remains over $25 for a sustained period. There is really nothing difficult in playing the sector of present - it is truly - "deja vu all over again" ie: The money is prudently sitting on the sidelines waiting to see what OPEC will do in March. - then the coiled spring gets let out of the box; just like last year and we run like scalded dogs for 4-6 weeks and a 30-50% sectorwide run. Pick you ponies - the bargain selloffs are not over yet - save some powder marginwise, but no reason to not be buying smart - buying laggards, value & retracements - and loading to a full position come the OPEC March meeting. OPEC is doing all the right things here - talking down prices etc. Oil majors & integrateds and value plays in E&P's are the safe money here; but the "ususal suspect" mo-mo fav's will lead the post -OPEC run... SII BJS CAM WFT etc and the drillers. I am especially waiting on HAL BHI on further weakness - these must owns for Institutions are lagging their historic valuation in comparison to some of their mo-mo peers on this early basing; they will catch up as the momenteum money pours in post March... safe plays with huge upside. Going to be an interesting next 30 days; curious as to what opportunities could be presented by an overall market selloff as well ? DOW 9750 would certainly take the Oilpatch down with it here - prior to OPEC's meeting... another reason to keep "some" buying power-powder dry.