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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6633)	2/18/2000 2:34:00 PM
From: Ibexx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

I can't speak for the analyst - just passing on some information, good or bad. Pru's 2001 estimated EPS for Q* is $1.61. Obviously this number has to be factored into the target price. I am neither endorsing nor refuting this report - just passing it on as I said. Ibexx PS: The strategic value is hard to quantify, we all know that. Only bean counters count only beans.

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (6633)	2/18/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 13582

How about a post from my shy friend who soaked me for dinner last night together with valueman. Too bad valueman is now snowed in and can read anything here. I guess he deserves it since he did break MY rules while I was on vacation last week. Impressions from the 2/17/00 Qualcomm Analyst Meeting Overall, it was an impressive performance from a management that seems to be shifting into high gear, or moving to the pace of "internet time" vs. "telco time", a phrase that Irwin and others used repeatedly throughout the presentation. Q is extending their technical lead and leveraging the strength of technology, market postition, reputation, and customer relationships to futher extend cdma's footprint and to move the entire industry rapidly toward wireless internet. This involves all divisions of the company, from chips and licensing, through Omnitracs, G*, Eudora, WK, etc. Focused is the word that kept going through my mind - on executing current plans and product roadmaps, and on using their unique postion to take advantage of opportunities to direct resources in ways that make it all happen faster and better, for customers, end users, and ultimately for the benefit of shareholders. The latter was particularly gratifying - remember my last note regarding the "Third Leg". Snaptrac is a good example: develop/buy preeminent position location capabilities, leverage the leading position in feature rich MSM and CSM chipsets by tightly integrating this new capability into the product, and present customers a complete solution for telematics applications for their future subscriber products. Voila! the MSM3300 is announced including all this and more, and less than 2 months after the acquisition. If I ever had any doubt about this management's ability to put future free cash flows quickly to work to the benefit of shareholder value, they were dispelled yesterday. I'm reading between the lines a bit, but I think Irwin is 100% convinced that 1X combined with HDR is the only 3G that will be necessary for existing operators for quite a while, and probably for new spectrum allocations too. And we all know that this is not somewhere out in the future of 02 or 03+. 1X chipsets are sampling NOW and we will see limited deployments late in the year and widespread deployment throughout next year. HDR will undergo capacity testing next month with 3 cell sites/7 sectors. I suspect results of this test will wake up a few of the operators. Q3 2000 there will be HDR technical trials by operators, market trials in Q1 01, and commercial availability by Q3 01. Here's a quote from one of the slides: "HDR is to internet access what CDMA is to wireless voice service." I like that one. Most telling was a chart showing the voice/data capacity per sector (5MHz) tradeoffs of various technology configurations. GSM voice with EDGE packet data shows about 15 erlangs voice capacity with no data throughput, dropping to zero voice capacity under a 500Kbps data load. By comparison, 3 1.25MHz 1x carriers in the same space can carry a maximum of 90 erlangs all voice no data, or over 1000Kbps all data, no voice. Changing that to 2 1X carriers and 1HDR carrier drops the max voice to 60 erlangs but simultaneously gets you almost the full 1000Kbps data capacity at the same time. If I'm interpreting this chart wrong I hope Engineer or Clark can correct me. What it tells me is that EDGE is a non-starter right out of the box. And lets not talk about GPRS - direct quote from Irwin: "I would love to compete against GPRS for as long as anyone wants" (or something close to that). Don Schrock's QCT presentation was impressive in content, but even more so for the commanding presence of Schrock himself. No nonsense, kick butt, take no prisoners. No need to recount the full roadmap here. Shrock left no doubt it will be executed as planned and on time. Putting more Q content in the phone is a big priority (thats where the Sawtek tumble comments came out). One to look for becoming Q content in future chips is the Power Amplifier - quote from Schrock - "stay tuned for CTIA" (I don't recall when that is scheduled) Steve Altman was also great on QTL. Again, no nonsense, here's what we are going to do, and no, we will not bow to some pool of cdma johnny-come-latelies and their committees. Of note was a slide showing new license and royalty opportunities - last item on it was "New Applications: Most existing subscriber unit licenses are limited to 'Complete CDMA Telephones' only. As markets for new applications are generated, licensees will need to expand their license agreements, and new royalty streams will be generated for: Automotive/Telematics, PDA's, Notebook computers, Medical Instumentation, Vending Machines." I think it was at a different point in the presentation when "automotive telematics" came up and they all kind of looked at each other with this Cheshire Cat grin - Watch this space! In summary, Q is shifting into internet time. They are focused. They are adding value in the "third leg" space. This year we drive the business to the internet. Next year is killer. Oh, and China? What's to say about a market of 1 billion customers that just opened its arms to you? Nokia? Do you want to have 1X capable handsets when all the operators demand them? Motorola, QCT's fastest growing customer, seems to want that capability. Enough, crawling back into hibernation mode. The Shy Guy