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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sammaster who wrote (76181)2/18/2000 3:28:00 PM
From: Freedom Fighter  Respond to of 132070
 
sammaster,

This is my view. If al.com is serious about slowing down the economy, I believe that's good for the government long bond.
There's seems to be this prevailing wisdom that if he raises short rates it hurts long bonds. I disagree. Perhaps it causes some short term unwinding of leveraged positions, but ultimately, I think tighter money slows the economy, chokes off any inflation and that's good for bonds. Run that one by Mike Burke. Maybe he has a different view.

Wayne



To: sammaster who wrote (76181)2/20/2000 11:21:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter  Respond to of 132070
 
Samir,

I read Mike's comments on the 30 year treasury. Just to clarify my own view, I would never own the 30 year treasury as a long term investment from here. I was more or less commenting on its action relative to short rates. If the economy slows significantly in the second half, I believe long treasury rates could fall further and produce capital gains. I also believe that if the stock market tanks we will get a rally in treasury bonds. IMHO, it's some of both that have driven the move from 6.7% to where it is now. Maybe it's already overdone.

Wayne