Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (40659)	2/18/2000 7:03:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 99985

>>>I don't think the tech bubble bursting will affect much the overall economy <<< If the bubble bursts, it most certainly will affect teh economy!!! As heinz stated, the market is the economy. If all those paper wealthy employees suddenly go from being worth millions in stock options to regular middle class slobs like me because their options are worthless, you don't think they will ask for real wages in cash feeling that since they THOUGHT they were really millionaires, they should be paid as one? If MSFT has to own up to their stock selling program, option accounting scams and loses big on all those puts they were selling as they suddenly become deep in teh money puts instead of "other gains", you don't think that will affect their earnings ( or lack there of) and thus prompt a slowdown. How many $40,000 SUVs can GM, Ford etc sell people that no longer will not care how much it costs and only ask "how much is the payment" ( A friend of mine is a car salesman and swears that is the norm now, no one cares what it costs, just the payment) How many new houses will be built when there is no money to buy them. All these things will spur layoffs in various industries causing pain. Of course, those of us that survive will be able to buy stock cheap and hold longs over night and actually be able to sleep because valuations will be realistic again, the layoffs will increase the labor pool, the fed will lower rates to spur growth again and we can go buy those 3 million dollar houses for 50K at low interest because all those preppies are out of work and are desperate to sell. Hey, I can dream can't I. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: KyrosL who wrote (40659)	2/18/2000 7:16:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

In the short term (next few months), I think the high tech bubble is going to burst, KyrosL, Why not now? As far as I'm concerned, the NDX futures pulling back into congestion at the close yesterday was the opening salvo for the top. Today was some amount of confirmation. Lets see what next week shall bring. Full disclosure, I am cash and short only, not a single long position. Period. My big long term winners in retirement accounts - liquidated them all after Jan 14. I don't play the dreaded yellow metal, I am happy making money on the short side to compensate. Am I bearish? No, just realistic. The market needs to prove to me its not in a bear market now. The tech market needs to prove to me that it hasn't just set an important top. If it proves to me otherwise, then I'll be long again.