dawn.com
By Afzaal Mahmood
THE increasing tension between India and Pakistan, unless checked in time, has the potential to
escalate into a full-scale military confrontation between the two countries over Kashmir. There has
been no change in New Delhi's hostile posture. As a matter of fact, the intensity and range of threats
from across the border have increased in the past few weeks.
The most unfortunate aspect of the unfolding scenario is that even Prime Minister Vajpayee, known
for his moderation and prudence, has chosen to throw caution to the winds. After declaring Pakistan
to be an "enemy country" and India's readiness for war, Mr Vajpayee has made even more
provocative remarks - the latest at a ceremony held recently in Jallundur to raise funds for the Kargil
soldiers. Expressing his repugnance to the two-nation theory, Mr Vajpayee confessed to not having
accepted the 1947 partition of the subcontinent, thus retracting his gesture which he had made in
February last year when he paid a visit to Minar-i-Pakistan in Lahore.
Referring to those who worry how long India and Pakistan could go on fighting after 50 years of
enmity, Mr Vajpayee responded by saying; "We shall fight as long as we are alive or till we are
victorious." He went on to add that it would be foolish if Pakistan thought that "it can annihilate India,
as the result of a nuclear exchange will be terrible for Pakistan."
Mr Vajpayee's defence minister and the Indian army chief have also not lagged behind in threatening
Pakistan with dire consequences. Mr George Fernandes has said that the possession of nuclear
weapons by Pakistan does not rule out the possibility of a limited conventional war. He characterized
the perception that India would be deterred by the nuclear factor as "the worst error of judgment by
Islamabad." Elaborating his point further, Mr Fernandes alluded to the bitter and prolonged
conventional clashes between the former Soviet Union and China in 1969 across the Ussuri river,
though both countries were armed with nuclear weapons. Taking the cue from his defence minister,
India's Chief of Army Staff, General V.P. Malik, has threatened that, despite Pakistan's nuclear
capability, India can cross the Line of Control (LoC) and enter Azad Kashmir in "hot pursuit."
Besides the threats and provocative statements by Indian leaders, there are some other ominous
developments which Pakistan cannot afford to overlook. The Indian army and air force have begun a
major joint exercise close to the Pakistan border with the strike corps, elite paratroopers and frontline
combat jets participating. Codenamed "Operation Vijay Chakra", the exercise is being held in
Suratgarh area in the tri-junction of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, with Indian army's first strike
corps with T-72 main battle tanks and supported by mechanized infantry, practising lightning
deep-operational tactics in almost real battle conditions.
Along with the strike corps, the Indian army is testing its latest telecommunication equipment as well
as battlefield computers. The exercise, witnessed by defence minister George Fernandes, army chief
V.P. Malik and Air Chief Marshal A.Y. Tipnis, has come at a time of rising tensions between New
Delhi and Islamabad. It may be mentioned that routine army exercises in the subcontinent usually take
place at the beginning of winter, and not towards its fag-end.
The ISPR has described Indian military activities across the border as "apparently" routine military
exercises. But two questions relating to "Operation Vijay Chakra" remain unanswered. Why has New
Delhi chosen to practise lightning deep-penetration tactics in almost real battle conditions near
Pakistan's international border at a time when relations between the two countries have touched their
lowest level since 1971? The second question is: Why did New Delhi choose not to inform Islamabad
beforehand about its military exercise, as it was required to in terms of the April 1991 agreement
between the two countries. And isn't New Delhi's wilful omission unusual and extraordinary?
Another development which appears to be part of New Delhi's overall military strategy vis-a-vis
Pakistan is the reported decision of the Vajpayee government to establish yet another intelligence
agency dedicated to gathering, collating and assessing military intelligence about Pakistan. The new
agency will comprise officers from defence services, RAW and the Intelligence Bureau.
In a major shift from its earlier policy of self-reliance in weapon's development, India has embarked
on an off-the-shelf purchase spree in a bid to quickly improve its combat capability which already has
a clear edge over Pakistan's military strength.
According to a report published in the December 13 issue of American military journal, Defence
News, the weapon systems being acquired by the Indian military include 35 SU-30 aircraft, 65
advanced jet trainers, 25 air defence radar systems, 300 self-propelled guns, numerous infantry
systems, two submarines and four surveillance planes.
A recent report, quoting director of Air Defence Artillery, A. Mukherjee, published in the daily
Business Standard, says that India has deployed a billion-dollar worth air defence system procured
from Russia. Called "Tungushka-M", the system's primary role is to provide air cover to attacking
artillery formations and to track and attack several targets at the same time, including helicopters,
fighter aircraft and cruise missiles. Tungushka-M complexes have been deployed in Kashmir and
Rajasthan on the border with Pakistan.
India has been quietly developing strategic plans to counter Pakistan's nuclear strike capability. During
a debate in parliament's lower house (Lok Sabha) on December 16 on whether India was prepared
to counter a full-scale nuclear attack from across the border, Defence minister George Fernandes
said, "We have a plan to counter any threat from Pakistan." The intention obviously is to outmatch and
outclass Pakistan's missile capabilities. A senior Indian official, George Cleetus, director Electronics
and Radar Development, was quoted by Press Trust of India (PTI) as claiming that India planned to
deploy soon an air defence system - Rajendra - akin to the American Patriot system, to identify and
destroy surface-to-air missiles in the air and before they hit the ground."
The airshield is said to be undergoing field evaluation and expected to be deployed by June around
important cities, nuclear power stations and petro-chemical refineries in India. New Delhi is also
negotiating with Moscow the purchase of long-range bombers-cum-reconnaissance aircraft Tuploev
22 M3 - for the Indian Navy. The plane capable of undertaking nuclear attack. This will enable India
to strike back even if its land-based nuclear arsenal and missiles are destroyed with a first strike.
The war-like preparations by India have not gone unnoticed in Washington. The CIA chief, George
Tenet, appearing before the US Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence, has warned of a full-scale
conflict between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Tenet further said: "It is highly possible that New
Delhi may opt to have a crackdown on Kashmiri militants who are operating on the Indian side of the
LoC or even order military strikes against militant training camps inside Azad Kashmir." On February
9, President Clinton, speaking to reporters at the White House, said that the potential for conflict
between India and Pakistan was far greater than was commonly understood.
The question that must be uppermost in the minds of the policy-makers in Islamabad is: How real is
the Indian threat and what are the objectives that Mr Vajpayee wants to achieve through his
threatening statements and war-like preparations? Is Pakistan -bashing aimed at repairing the political
damage that the BJP has suffered in the wake of the Kargil encounters and the surrender at Kandahar
before the Indian Airline plane's hijackers? Is the attempt to increase tension between the two
countries just a ploy to deflect international pressure on New Delhi to resume talks with Islamabad on
Kashmir? Is it just a war of nerves unleashed by New Delhi to deter Pakistan from extending help to
Kashmiri Mujahideen in their freedom struggle? Or is the Indian threat a real one because the costs in
Kashmir are becoming increasingly unaffordable for New Delhi?
The Indian troops have crossed the LoC and attacked Pakistani posts three times in as many weeks,
the most recent taking place in Kotli sub-sector on February 16. According to the CIA chief, the
fighting in Kashmir is likely to "increase significantly" in the spring. After Kargil, the Mujahideen in
Kashmir are inflicting, through daring attacks, heavy casualties on the Indian security forces.
According to New Delhi's Asian Age of January 12, "highly motivated armed militants have recently
changed tactics by executing quality hits on the security forces, successfully tying them and forcing
them into a defensive posture."
The paper goes on to say that "according to official statistics, from 1997, when nearly six militants
were killed in encounters for every security forces personnel who died in counter-insurgency
operations, the ratio dropped to around four militants in 1998, plummeting further to around two
militants last year."
The escalating costs in men and resources of counter-insurgency operations in held Kashmir may have
become unaffordable for the Indian army and the policy-makers in New Delhi. That may be the
reason behind threatening statements of Indian leaders and the ominous developments across the
border. It would, therefore, be a mistake to rule out the possibility of an Indian military adventure
against Pakistan if New Delhi thinks that a successful operation against this country will bury the
Kashmir problem for good. As pointed out in a recent article in this paper by Tanvir Ahmed Khan,
nuclear decapitation is a real fear in the case of Pakistan since its minimal arsenal may encourage
conventional preemption by India.
According to Eric Arnet, India could potentially disable most of Pakistan's nuclear delivery capability.
This danger will increase as India inducts more and better aircraft with high-precision munitions and
deploys more Prithvis. When George Fernandes recently threatened to "fight limited conventional war
under the nuclear shadow", he was probably referring to nuclear decapitation through overwhelming
conventional preemption.
Pakistan should continue to adhere to the policy of restraint that it has been following despite
provocations from the Indian side. Islamabad should, however, take the Indian threat seriously and
adopt all possible measures, diplomatic and military, to protect the security and integrity of the
country. Any smugness about the threat from across the border can prove disastrous. |
