To: Dan B. who wrote (1752 ) 2/19/2000 2:37:00 AM From: pat mudge Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2347
Reading the press on the competition you provided(thank-you), I'd have to say it is not at all clear that this competition does any more than scratch the surface of what cherrypicker provides...and cherrypicker is already beyond the initial development stage, it's in use and helping to cause Tern's revenues to soar, and their pro-forma profits to become .04 last Q vs an expected pro-forma loss of $.19. Value of SOME kind is causing this to happen, that's for pretty sure I'd say. You've provided information no one on the recent CC could drag from TERN's management --- the value of CherryPicker to the bottom line. You've made it clear S-CDMA-based products alone would have resulted in a loss of .19. Combined with what the S-3 revealed regarding Rogers revenues, I think it's safe to conclude S-CDMA sales were considerably less than the preceding quarter --- and explains Rakib's refusal to break out revenues by product or geography. Would it also be fair to say Gilder would have been more correct had he focused on Imedia's offerings since they contributed so much to the bottom line? And, if so, would it also be fair to say he's beating the wrong drum by touting CDMA? I certainly have no problem with his supporting a competing company, but his analysis would be more credible if he backed it for what it offers and not what he mistakenly thinks it offers. He came close to admitting it when referencing Telegate and yet he ended by leading the reader to think TERN was the next QCOM. It's late and I'm not going to debate S-CDMA's qualities. After all, if CherryPicker is the new star, there's no need to waste time debating why S-CDMA is this or that.If Mr Gilder says noise immune S-CDMA deployments are handling a thousand times the the number of homes as rivals can(he does), I don't think you should doubt it. If he is a little off in saying that, I'm certain he'd be the first to admit it. I can think of no instance when MR. Gilder knowingly published a false statistic, and rather than being a hypster, he consistently and willingly offers scenario's that could foil his bets- so that subscribers might see them coming. I'm not to question Gilder? The same Gilder who just wrote that TERN's S-CDMA had become an industry standard? The same Gilder who admitted TERN couldn't meet Roger's requirements, that Telegate would be their salvation for VoIP --- and yet implied TERN was a CDMA leader? The same Gilder who crowns TERN the next QCOM without so much as a word about their being knocked out of CableLabs for 1.2 and Adv PHY? Surely you're not suggesting I shouldn't question this man's veracity. On the other hand, maybe it's Ken Erhart who should be fired for making mistakes no professional journalist would make --- nor a responsible analyst, for that matter. Certainly not someone just named as a consultant to Merrill Lynch and writes for an international publication of Forbes' stature. In closing, thanks for providing the information on Imedia's contribution last quarter. I suspect every analyst who covers the company will be green with envy you had those stats. Regards, Pat