To: Jess Beltz who wrote (7656 ) 2/19/2000 1:09:00 PM From: Original Mad Dog Respond to of 9236
Jess, Good insights. I agree, the economy is just fine, and I think Greenspan thinks so too. His self-defined charter has evolved from repairing a broken toy to ensuring that the new toy, which is lots of fun to play with, doesn't get broken. Of course, some people are still trying to fix their old, broken toys. They don't understand how the new toys work, they remember with much sentimentality how the old toy used to be so much fun to play with, and they just can't get over it. I used to take extra money (whenever I had some) and put it into mutual funds. I would spend some time figuring out which mutual funds I thought were best, and then carefully allocate the money amongst them. Now, when I have a little extra, those funds (many of which still buy the same old stocks they used to) don't even cross my mind. I send the money to my online brokerage account, and let the games begin. I always reason from the premise that when it comes to such behavior, there is nothing special about me. I am just one of a herd. And the more that herd continues to grow, the more this long-term sector rotation will continue. Why shouldn't it? I have been sorely tempted lately to buy LEAPS on a couple of beaten down good companies whose profits are still growing although their revenues have flattened a bit. Something has been holding me back from taking the plunge on this strategy. Part of it, I think, is that it is easier to predict that a rocket that has already launched will continue skyward than it is to predict exactly when the Phoenix will rise from the ashes. As for AWRE, if the stock is 150 a year from now, will it really matter that much whether you bought it at 60 or 55? JMHO, MAD DOG