Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (40750)	2/19/2000 12:54:00 PM
From: Kailash	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

KyrosL - You're not getting it -- it's not just that interest rates aren't bad for the tech stocks (they have endless access to your money through POs), they're actually good for the tech stocks because all the money that used to be in the Dow is on its way over to the techs! We're going to the moon -- and we're not coming back. <VBG> I liked the conjunction of those two articles -- first the spin, then the warning "this is spin"... Kailash

To: KyrosL who wrote (40750)	2/19/2000 2:15:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Stock Market: despite a lot of gyrations, not a whole lot has changed as far as our broad market indicators go. The equity-only put-call ratio remains solidly on a sell signal. This indicator is most applicable to indices such as $OEX or $SPX, not NASDAQ. As more and more put buying builds up (while the big-cap market drops), we will eventually get a contrarian peak of pessimism, but that seems to be some way off. Additionally, our oscillator has dropped below -200 and is thus officially oversold. However, it can get VERY oversold, so will not anticipate. The oscillator will generate a buy signal when it eventually rises above -180 (it stands at about -217 as of the close of trading on Thursday, February 17th). In the past couple of days, small caps have begun to improve once again, and that has helped breadth improve somewhat. If that persists, we should see a buy signal from the oscillator within the week. However, as long as the equity-only put- call ratio remains on a sell signal, we would not get overly bullish, no matter WHAT the oscillator "says". Expiration is likely to be "yawn", at least as far as arbitrage buy or sell programs go. $OEX would have to fall below 740 for sell programs to occur at the close of trading Friday, and that seems unlikely since it closed at 752 Thursday. optionstrategist.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (40750)	2/19/2000 2:39:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

re: "say company A that grows at 20% is awarded a p/e of 30, and company B that grows at 30% is awarded a p/e of 60. A slowdown that cuts B's growth rate from 30% to 20%, should result in its valuation being cut by half." Exactly right, except that the PE premium for growth stocks has become much more extreme than your example, and often the "growth" is entirely theoretical, involving sales rather than profits, or some very hopeful/optomistic assumptions/extrapolations about the future. Actually, "investors" who are buying the internet/biotech/fuel cell/semi/fiberoptic stocks, long ago stopped doing these B. Graham/W. Buffet-type calculations. On the threads of those stocks, it isn't possible to start a serious debate about valuation. The attitude is, if you bring up the subject, you're an idiot.