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Strategies & Market Trends : MOON TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scotty who wrote (458)	2/20/2000 2:56:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 808

Scotty, i believe the West generally underestimates the China/Taiwan situation. the PLA has a few extremely hard-line generals who judging from their statements do NOT fear a U.S. intervention in case of China attacking Taiwan. a few months ago one of them stated publicly that any interference would meet with nuclear retaliation. while this is certainly not official government policy, it is significant that such a statement was allowed to be published imo. it's a way of issuing a threat without admitting to it being part of policy. it is also not very well known in the West how unstable China actually is internally. economic conditions vary greatly from region to region, and China is far from an ethnically cohesive state. several provinces harbor large ethnic minorities which would like nothing better than to break away. add to that an ongoing severe economic crisis and an autocratic government that will do anything to retain power, and you're looking at a lot of potential trouble. a war with Taiwan may just be what the doctor ordered to divert attention from the increasingly tenuous economic situation. i'm not trying to predict anything here, just pointing out that one should always keep a close eye on China...it's liable to produce a few surprises in due course. regards, hb