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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry S. who wrote (457)	2/20/2000 9:41:00 AM
From: Dan P	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 972

Thanks for posting the index. As you know, Lou Ruckeyser concluded that the gold move "petered out". I personally thought that last Friday's action was very important for the gold market. Gold rose over $3 and the XAU was up over 2 points in the face of a very negative overall market and, finally, a big drop in the stalwart Nasdaq. This is one of the few times in recent memory (past 20 yrs or so), that we are beginning to see a divergence between the overall market on the one hand, and gold and the shares on the other. This happened in the 70's, but Marantette insists hasn't occurred since: which is why he has often stated that his best gold/gold stock rallies have occurred within the same timeframe as an overall up market, at least for the past 20 years or so. He is coming around to believing that we may finally be entering a period of divergence. Looking back at some charts, I note that in 1973, gold and gold stocks were up significantly while the Dow dropped steadily all year. 1974 was a tough year again for the Dow, worse than 1973. Looking at three gold stocks (Homestake, Dome Mines, and ASA) they were basically unchanged for the year, and were reasonable hedges that year. From 1976 through 1979, the Dow went sideways, while the gold stocks steadily appreciated. Sorry for the rambling, but I wonder if we are about to revisit the 1970's? Regards Dan