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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (661)	2/20/2000 11:25:00 AM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

i agree, but jubak's call to buy more bios tells me that this overvaluation can go on for a while. there are still a lot of investors who are seeing their yahoo, aol, and amzn slide while their bio-brethren are minting money. i bet they move into bios as the next internet play. my strategy is to not fight the fed, stay with the unloved little guys that are just now being seen as cherrys by the MOMO managers, giving rise to my stocks as i lighten up for the greenspan effect. i should be 20% cash within a couple weeks and will look for the bargains that will occur next spring and summer after the next rate hike. i think the biotechs will start to act like the internet stocks for at least another year or two. you need to pick the winners or be a deft trader. curtis

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (661)	2/20/2000 2:37:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 52153

Rick, How I read John post and what I think he have in mind (He will correct me if I am wrong) is that sector as unit was under-performing market regardless that enormous progress was made in every field relevant to drug discovery and development. So, when rally started six months ago many bios (generaly) were 3-5 X under-valuated in their MC. Now, if they rallied by 6-10X, actual growth in MC is 1-2X. Not sufficient to cover all opportunity and very good perspective in coming years. That in current situation sub-sector like gen.com (media exposure) and craps (common luck of knowledge and basic information) rallied as well isn't anything unexpected. I agree with almost all yours points. Specially with: "The promise is still strong, love the concept. Without more "MLNM"-like deals, however, we'll see more modest valuations IMO." That gen.com and maybe some mAb.com will correct at some point I have no doubt. However, will this correction effect pipeline and platform reach bios with the some strain is big question. We are now in different time than in 91 correction and after-95/96 slow down. I see confidence growth among large and small investors that bios CAN delivery expectation. Street is now better informed about bios and their science. If I can build basic knowledge about what is going on in bio-science and how this can effect pharmaceutical industry in future than anyone can do it. So, when (and if) correction for high-fly stocks which rallied the most come we will have again buying opportunity. However, mu guess is that we may first experience money re-balancing inside sector. Some sub-sector bios are still cheap on relative and maybe absolute base. If momo money continue to expect yearly 100% return and this doesn't come (which I do not thing that it will on non-selective base) where else they can go? To generate another hype somewhere else? If market can't offer sector which can generate +30% annual return (for instance in next 5-10 years) and leverage basket of the bios can, than smart money will find its way to bios sector. Latest huge finance is first indication for this. And there are still plenty of fresh and old $$$ which are waiting for correction (general market correction). Nonetheless, interesting and exciting times are coming. Cheers, Miljenko.pipeline.com