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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rfisher who wrote (37329)	2/20/2000 2:46:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Bob, I think that we have had the big market correction and that the DOW will hold at 10,000. If it closes under, then I get very bad vibes, particularly if we do not get excessive negative tick (which so far are still lacking). Very bad vibes will mean a bear market a good 10 months or so ahead of the "turnips" schedule. If we do enter a bear here, I do not see any major support until about $8200, and that means the NAZ could go all the way to 3000, a real bad hit. Rallies would be weak and false. I do not think we are ready for that yet, because of world wide excess liquidity, but this liquidity could dry up fast. Arguments for a major bear are plenty, four tightening steps by the feds, excess valuation, the transportation hitting new lows and diverging strongly from the DOW, the DOW itself making a new retrenchment low, first failing at the 10727 (of last January) and then failing to hold at 10400 or so. The bad breath, narrowing of the new high list on advances, even when the market is near new highs (the NAZ last week) and so on. The argument against is liquidity and election year. Which way it will go? I know not, but I am tilting toward the improbable, namely holding the line at 10,000 on the DOW. Thus an entry into RMBS in the area of $120 should be OK (stop loss around 115 or so). Zeev