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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (18388)	2/20/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: mooter775	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Roger, I agree with you assessment regarding Valence's apparent (or 'claimed and dubious', if you are short)technology advantage. I have always expected that the principal competition will come from the Japanese - they are tireless, fearsome competitors and don't suffer liightly losing market share to a new technology. And I think that it is fair to say, so far, that they still feel they might have a real chance to produce a competitive safe product to Valence's 'dry' li polymer technology. Sanyo's 'lipoly gel' apparently has an energy density of about 130-135 wt hrs/kg, and the Valence 2nd generation batteries (currently being shipped from NI per the SM comments) apparently a 140-145 wt/kg energy density. I heard that Sony's 'withdrawn' large cell lipoly gel had an apparent energy density of roughly 160 wt hrs/kg, but that it was unstable and the company withdrew this large format cell from the market (the latter statement from the SM as well). Valence's 3rd generation, which I believe can now be produced in Henderson, apparently has a 20-30% increase over their Gen 2, which implies an energy density of 170 - 180 wt hr/kg. This, I think should be available sometime in 2001. Valence's 4th or 5th generation batteries - and Lev indicated that the company had 2 technology choices with this/these generations, should generate a comparable 20-30% increment over their gen3 batteries, which implies an energy density of more than 200 wt hrs/kg. I suspect, but don't know, that these generations are currently being produced on a pilot basis in Henderson and would be available sometime in late 2001.... The company has implied that a number of key patents have been applied for but not issued yet - I suspect that some of these relate not only to the 'phosphate improvement', but also to other means of improving the technology. It is my expectation that when those other patents issue that at least some of the Asian producers will understand that they have been preempted and decide to license current and future technolgies from Valence. Until any of these events happen, I remain long and expecting further evidence of OEM acceptance of Valence's current technology: in expansion of current customer relationships, in laptop and PDA applications as well as additional cellphone customers. I also expect additional analyst coverage of the company in coming weeks. We shall just have to wait and see. Against some obvious worry that Greenspan & Co will continue to raise rates until stock market speculation eases, the company may indeed tread water for awhile. But I remain a believer in Valence's technology and expect to add to my current position on any weakness.