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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (40823)2/20/2000 4:33:00 PM
From: Rarebird  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 99985
 
<During the Tulip mania or South Sea bubble there were the same justification for bidding higher the prices of items under speculation only to later realize that those prices came crushing down to earth.>

Your reference is abstract. Again, your comparing apples with oranges, or Chinese food with Italian food.

Valuation is a subjective measure of evaluating the future prospects of a company. It depends on a lot of variable factors and cannot be objectively pigeonholed into a certain range, as the Bears think it should be, based on the past. The past does not determine the future. I know it bothers the Bears immensely when they look at history and they see that the most narrow bull market in history began in October 98 with the S@P trading at a record 25 times earnings. To be sure, this was the highest valuation that a Bull Market ever began with. But the Information Age Bulls were right rather than the Bears back then. Of course, I'm going to hear now that Greenspan flooded the system with liquidity to save the inevitable. What makes you think he won't do it again if need be? If Greenspan pulls off another soft landing as he did in 94, you are going to see Dow 36,000 in 2004-2005.

As for what constitutes "right" or "wrong" in the financial markets from the standpoint of initiating a position is very simple: "right" is a profitable trade and "wrong" is a losing trade.

The transports have gotten killed due to the rally in crude oil. Why trust that as a "reliable indicator."

Life is not, as you think, eternal recurrence of the same. It is the human creation of the new.