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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMarcus who wrote (781)	2/20/2000 4:56:00 PM
From: Dr. John M. de Castro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1494

Valuing a biotech stock is difficult because you not only have to look at the fundamentals of the company, but also the overall market sentiment toward biotech. But, given the assumption that the market for biotech in general stays constant, let me suggest the following multiples. Major solid partnership, with favorable terms = 2 X NTII = $16 / share. IMHO, if such a partnership is inked NTII is worth double its current value. This could vary with the nature of the partner and/or the terms. The 2X would be reasonable because it would move NTII out of the promising category into the solid, moderate risk investment category. The second outgrowth of a major partnership would be that NTII would have the net worth to become relisted on the NASDAQ. NASDAQ relisting: 1.5 X NTII = $24 / share. Excellent AIDS Dementia Complex Clinical trial results: 1.5 X NTII $36 / share. If the results for the ADC trial are sufficiently good we could see NTII go directly to the FDA for approval. NDA submission: 1.25 X NTII = $45. Disclaimer: I am a complete amateur at this sort of analysis and the numbers that you see here are my best guesses given my experience in biotech and knowledge of the value of NTII's programs. I'd appreciate hearing others ideas in this regard. I've always been a believer that the value of anything is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. This is very very hard to determine with a rational or mathematical analysis. Best regards John de C