Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Newbridge Networks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (17368)	2/20/2000 10:40:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 18016

NN SWEEPSTAKES from YHOO board: messages.yahoo.com Buyout price ÿby: nnbuyout40ÿ ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ 2/17/00 5:31 pm ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ Msg: 17196 of 17629 ÿ<<<Now, if the price is $42, the winner is... ME!!! If that turns out to be the case,ÿ I know that everyone will be thinking that this contest is rigged. But we ÿstarted this thing long before the latest news. ÿYeah, $42 ain't bad. It'll buy a nice bottle of California Champagneÿ (oops, make that French).ÿ ÿBut let me state right here that I will more than happily be the loser ofÿ this contest if those nice Frenchmen and Terry were to uncork a lovely bottle of ÿFrench bubbly costing more like $52!! ÿ--------------------------------------------- ÿHere is the current tally for naming the NN buyout price (updated).ÿ These guesses are in US dollars, followed by the guess of a cash deal, a stock deal, a ÿmix, or not specified. ÿNote that the average price is $51.58. At that price, with 180 million shares outstanding,ÿ this would be about an $9.3 billion sale. This translates to about ÿ6x sales, and about 51x estimated calendar year 2000 profitsÿ (based on the current consensus, excluding the anticipated savings from the layoffs and ÿoutsourcing deal). ÿFor comparison, the low guess of $36 means a $6.5 billion deal, about 4x sales,ÿ and 36x cy2000 P/E. The high guess of $70.35 means a $12.6 billion deal, ÿabout 8 1/2x sales, and 70x cy2000 P/E. ÿJoe_Idyll $36 <not specified>ÿ ÿRaging_Street_Zeus $37 cash deal ÿI2c2 $38 cash deal ÿgatu $38 stock deal ÿzhwa_d_vevr $39 <not specified> ÿnnbuyout40 $40 stock deal ÿstocktrader97 $45 stock deal ÿbigkingkongballs $45 1/2 stock, 1/2 cash ÿPorscheBoxster1999 $45 cash deal ÿteddyjsat $50 stock deal ÿmsm1412 $51 cash deal ÿbertrandpoissonpers $53 <not specified> ÿpecunias $55 <not specified>ÿ ÿredman2626 $55 1/2 stock, 1/2 cashÿ ÿvhs68jr $62 stock deal ÿfingercrosser $65 stock deal ÿdaplus4 $65 stock deal ÿbasmacbonkie $70 stock deal ÿfi99_2000 $70.35<not specified>ÿ ===================== Reply to To: Thomas Scharf who wrote (17359) From: Tunica Albuginea Sunday, Feb 20, 2000 10:36 PM ET Reply # of 17369 Thomas what you are saying is what we have all been saying in this thread for past 4 years. Unfortunately when you are dealing with " irrational exuberance " it is hard to stop smoking, put the glass down and get back to real life. However Monday morning is coming, <vbg> Time for Telco market to wake up. And it will. Appreciate your return after and input after long time. I will put you down for US 70 Message 12756788 NN SI SWEEPSTAKES .....................Min.TM accepts................Min/Max.NT offers.........Min/Max. CSCO offers =================================================== gbh: ....................value varied on whether offer is in cash or stock. Sam W. Turner ..30(cash)40stock..................X......................................X fumble................28........................................38....................................CSCO high on list Bob Howarth......X........................................30-45................................X Ian .....................32.......................................34-44................................0 blaeiro1.............44........................................40-48.................................0-60 beach.................40.......................................50......................................60 Pat....................45................................................................................. TA.....................45.......................................40-60.................................90 Peppe.................42.......................................50..................................... MM....................42 - 62............................... 65 .....................................80 JS......................50.......................................30-50 ................................CSCO ???? Others: 50. (Alcatel, Siemens) T. Scharf............70..................................................................................100 Francois Lavoie..60 ERICY..................................................................... Maple Leaf....................................................1/2 sh of NT ( 50 )............... Charlie Tuna.....100.......................................100....................................100 ------------------------------------------- :-) TA ============================================================ Message #17359 from Thomas Scharf at Feb 20 2000 5:03PM For the last couple of months I lurked on this thread reading posts that say 2 things: 1)NN will be sold BEFORE earnings are reported. and 2)NN's earnings will beat estimates. My problem is that if #2 is true, the board of directors would be violating it's fiduciary responsibility to get the maximum value for stockholders by selling out in advance of the earnings report. Blow-out earnings would inevitably raise the buyout price & might even lead to a bidding war if it can be shown that NN's problems are in the past. If management is finally on track, there is no reason that NN doesn't deserve a PE of at least 40 (currently around 21) & possibly as high as 100. Heck, even lowly 3Com has a PE over 50! LU, which has been supporting earnings (and disguising horrible management, by tapping an over-funded retirement plan) has a current PE of 78! Give me a break, and give me at least US$70 for my NN shares. Anything less is just surrendering to fatigue on the part of those who have held this stock a long time without seeing the hoped for returns. Just my US$0.02

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (17368)	2/21/2000 12:52:00 PM
From: Thomas Scharf	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18016

>>what you are saying is what we have all been saying in this thread for past 4 years<< I've seen too many posts that imply that not selling out before the earnings are released would be seen as a failure by management when, in fact, just the opposite is true. The only excuse for an early sell out would be another earnings short-fall. >>Unfortunately when you are dealing with " irrational exuberance " it is hard to stop smoking, put the glass down and get back to real life. << This may be true of the "dot com" stocks, but the case for hardware companies like csco, nn, lu, nt, etc is very different indeed. The market for this type of company may be a bit ahead of itself on fundamentals (12 mo. at most), but there is tremendous intrinsic value in the infrastructure companies. Remember the gold rush of 1849 (ok, you're not that old...go look it up in a history book <g>). The people who made money were NOT the miners. Virtually all of them ended up broke, but the store keepers who sold them picks and shovels all got rich. For all the internet growth we've seen in the last 10 years, the technology and the market for it has not even reached adolescence. The introduction of broadband to the home and wireless communications services alone offer huge opportunities. Mean while, most of the world is not yet wired for telephones, much less the internet, so there is a large gap to fill. I don't recall making an estimate of a csco offer for NN, but the $100 you put in your table does sound about right. Let's call it a .75:1 exchange. The only problem I have is that I'm already top heavy with csco. I made a small investment in 1993 that just keeps growing and growing and growing. My cost basis is around $3.