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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cyrus Mashhoodi who wrote (6530)	2/21/2000 12:25:00 AM
From: John Waddell, Ph.D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

I haven't seen the IBD article, but if it is positive, it should give a boost to JDSU. Since we have a holiday, I thought it might be a good time to review the upcoming pressures on our favorite stock. Upward Pressure 1) Shareholder approval for increasing shares on Feb. 25. How much JDSU rallies vs. the Naz on this fait accompli will give us a good idea how much JDS continues to be a mo-mo stock. 2) Trade Show, March 6-10. Split March 10. I would expect significant upward pressure during this week, with perhaps a short-term fall-off if there is a big rally. 3) The ETEK merger was announced Jan. 18. This was referred to the DOJ for their 30 day review around this time. So, we should be hearing from the DOJ in the next week or so. I would think approval would lead to a 5% increase in ETEK relative to JDSU and a 2% increase in JDSU. 4) After this, I don't see anything definite on the horizon until the next earnings report. JDSU just announced 30 new products going into the trade show, so it is unlikely there will be any dramatic new product announcements. 5) We still have the possibility of inclusion in the S&P 500, especially after the stock split, IMO, because they like as many shares as possible to be available for the index fund purchases. Whether JDSU gets included or not, there will still be some upward pressure due to the likelihood. (See posts by t2) 6) Finally, tax refunds are running 22% higher this year than last, and some of this will likely be put into hot tech stocks like JDSU until about April 30. Downward Pressure 1) The Naz is very high right now, and many people are worried about a fall. This would take JDSU with it. 2) If the ETEK/JDSU merger gets nixed by the DOJ, JDSU would go down about 5% and ETEK much further. 3) There will be some tax-related selling in early April, since JDSU appreciated so much last year. As you can see, I think there is much more upward pressure. (I'm long ETEK.) I would be interested in anyone's comments/additions to this list. Thanks. John Waddell