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Technology Stocks : Aware, Inc. - Hot or cold IPO? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill F. who wrote (7679)	2/21/2000 8:15:00 AM
From: Jess Beltz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9236

Bill, thank you for the reply. Let me apologize for not spelling your name correctly. I have done a little research and found out some details on your call on Cymer. The time frame is about October 25. I'm guessing that you submitted the article on or just before October 24. At that time, the stock was around $26, but you could have easily taken your short positions before that, when the stock was around $30. Only you know that one. However, let's examine your comments: Here's the exerpt from Barrons: ""I'm short one other little company, Cymer. Symbol CYMI," Fleckenstein adds. "They make UV bulbs that go into semiconductor lithography equipment. The story was that they had a very sexy laser and no competition. But it turns out that they do have competition, and their customers are having some problems. Now this isn't a huge market to begin with, and Cymer already has made enough bulbs to supply it for quite some time. Their business is just going to stop. Yet at nine times revenues it has a $1 billion market valuation. In any other environment, the stock would be a teenager already. [It's around 28.] It's a great story. Even its investment bankers have dropped their recommendations." Now then Bill, it is true that the stock did end up in the low teens, but it is also true that the reason for that was entirely the market linkage between what was happening with respect to the Asian economies and the market for semiconductor equipment manufacturers, as evidenced by the way the sector roared back when those economies started to recover. There was reported to be a minor problem with vibrations in Cymer's lasers, but that was inconsequential. In fact, several ill founded rumors (one in particular about a shortage of quartz crystals for the laser lenses) in conjunction with the market-wide debacle was driving the share price down, and you jumped on board with the little piece above, of which there is virtually nothing factual at all. I submit that their business did not stop, and isn't going to stop anytime soon, and they do have a huge proportion of the DUV laser systems for the photolithography sector of semiconductor manufacture. The stock did tank, and you made money (congratulations) but your analysis about the reasons why is nearly totally wrong. Let me address why I care. As an investor, all I want is factual information with which to make an informed decision. Investing in the market always has an element of gambling about it, but we try to make as educated a guesses as possible. The kind of analysis you presented above makes that more difficult. Let me say that individuals that tout stocks to the sky with all sorts of inflated projections for sales, etc. are no better. It would help the cause of market rationality tremendously if individuals would quit trying to play off of market psychology to make money, and let the numbers surrounding the stocks speak for themselves. I know: fat chance. Good luck Bill. Jess.