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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (40872)	2/21/2000 1:38:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Respond to of 99985

Beware of sentiment. Many of those now expressing caution/bearishness are almost fully invested. True, 9 of the last 10 predicted crashes have not yet materialized, but if one were to occur soon, pre-conditions are now in place. Hostile Fed., rampant margin speculation in the most over priced stocks. Many stalwarts in near crash mode [check out the chart of AXP -20% in 1 mo]. There are many similarities between the action pre-crash '87 and now. Hostile Fed., rampant speculation, yet, a numerous stocks in full retreat before the crash. Like '87, the majority was/is oblivious to potential disaster because of continued [mesmerizing] strength in high tech., which held up until the end, and then just fell off a cliff like the old Indian buffalo drives. The buffalo didn't see any great problem either until...there was just air below. A simple 20% haircut is not so bad, but for many stocks it would be much more and combined with the leverage of margin, the owners would not be talking correction, but...erasure. thanks, Mike PS. I have no idea of this will be the 10 th out of 11th. crash that didn't happen, but for sure, the majority of investors/speculators are unduly sanguine if one could take a look at how fully invested/margined they are-despite their cautious talk.