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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (6471)	2/21/2000 2:51:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

I think that there are natural forces that are defined in physics which will prevent the 6000+ ISPs equal access, beyond those factors which are dictated by politics alone. The limitations have to do with current (and even some of the most recently planned) HFC designs. Unless MSOs drastically change their last mile profiles in order to take better advantage of fiber's potentials, there will be room for only limited ISP activity, which means the MSOs' own choice of ATHM/RR etc, and possibly one or two other token providers who come onto the system under provisional terms. If forced to bring on more than just a token few (in the extreme, all) ISPs, then I could envision the cable operators actually being tempted in certain areas to allow conditions to deteriorate in order to prove their point. But there will be several opposing factors which will drive them from doing this in an all-out way. The primary reason being, and the only thing which prevents them from erecting even greater obstacles to additional ISPs than they already have (through the modalities and the closed architectures they now have in place) is the prospect that someone else will come in and beat them at their own game, which I think is a very likely possibility at some point. Many of the MSOs have already paid the consultants to come in and lay out these scenarios for them. They know them only too well. In any other market segment these prevailing conditions would be associated with the well known cartel practice of controlling supply. But here, we are happy for whatever drops of bandwidth we can get, so the newly endowed 'haves' are not very likely to speak up _at_ this_ time_. But they will, when their occasional brownouts turn into frequent ones.