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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Tara who wrote (40911)	2/21/2000 8:42:00 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Jon, That wasn't my point, that was the point of the previous poster. I'm just saying that I do not think that everyone is calling a crash. Personally, I think the average long term investor; the average mutual fund buyer; the average just-retired long time union employee; well, most of average western nations populace that are not already day traders or active SI posters -- most of those folks will not see a big down turn nor a big up trend coming. They are just on the wagon, come hell or high water.

To: Jon Tara who wrote (40911)	2/21/2000 9:43:00 PM
From: Kailash	Respond to of 99985

Jon - this is a good point. Crashes should happen under certain special circumstances. On the one hand, optimism must prevail up until the moment of the crash. On the other, there must be a sudden collective turn where everybody wants to get out at once. I think this makes this week a good candidate: optimism on tech stocks was at an all-time high up until Friday, then with the late decline there was a sudden sense of fear: we're way too high! I expect big losses early in the week. Kailash