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Biotech / Medical : Biotechnology Value Fund, L.P. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (1444)	2/21/2000 11:06:00 PM
From: Miljenko Zuanic	Respond to of 4974

DAK, I can share and understand your view, but disagree in overall perception. <<Because I believe [based on observation of rally] that there is money thrown at sector with only some regard to potential. Therefore, when selling occurs I believe it will happen the same way, ...>> +$8BB in follow-on and IPO (redicilous price rise, btw) for two months isn't money thrown for momentum, so will not be pulled out when momentum cease or reverse, imo. <I believe Mr. market knows even less in biotech... in tech the 'gems' perform such. In biotech I don't believe this will be so prevalent.>> Mr. Market have two old example (AMGN and BGEN) and few new ones (IMNX, MEDI, IDPH,..) two value bios on PE and GROWTH base. It doesn't take Salamon or expert to figure out what successful bios story means. Mr. Market doesn't have to hit every story, three out of ten and they have 30% annually. <<Agree with the caveat that in biotech, lack of sales will result in tremendous buying opps in downturns.... when is downturn?? >> Let me give example from Friday, interesting story. BGEN/CVXT (btw, I see CVTX as very prosperous company) reported that they have confirmed value of the adenosine A1 receptor as target for asthma, however they will continue program with backup which means that they are three years behind. This was second time for BGEN that their lead compound actually failed. Six-nine months ago this will generate sell off for BGEN and CVTX. However and regardless that Friday was BAD market day, someone upgrade BGEN with new higher target price, while CVTX was intact. Now, does Mr. Market fill or sense that it is time to value bios as whole and complete picture (pipeline, technology, place in space and time,...) or based on judgement for candidate to candidate and any bad news is sell off trigger? Wasn't this opposite of lack of sales? At least so far? Bottom line, correction in 10-20% range will bring health to sector, sell off in >30-50% range, maybe, but not IMO. Miljenko