To: D. K. G. who wrote (6481 ) 2/23/2000 8:46:00 PM From: D. K. G. Respond to of 12823
"Fiber-To-The-X: The New For Fiber To the Desk, Cabinet, And Home"telecomweb.com Despite the rush to design and build dense wave division multiplexing (DWDM) systems as a solution to "fiber exhaust" problems in metropolitan loops, a new report from Communications Industry Researchers, Inc. makes it clear that bringing new fiber into the business loop still presents considerable market opportunities. According to the new report, "Fiber-To-The-X: The New For Fiber To the Desk, Cabinet, And Home," seeing local DWDM systems as the best way of avoiding fiber shortages will lead to missed opportunities in both the DWDM and close-in fiber markets. In many cases, installing new fiber can be more easily economically justified than installing DWDM in the loop. However, both the local fiber market and the local DWDM market show all the signs of presenting substantial opportunities. Thus the U.S. market for fiber-to-the-building systems in 2000 will be approximately $600 million, compared with $250 million for "metro DWDM systems." While focused on force fitting metro DWDM into the local access space, both vendors and carriers have sometimes been remiss when it comes to understanding what is happening at the big office building down the block. CIR research shows that pulling new fiber into the loop environment, may not be all that expensive in comparison. In the largest metropolitan areas -- where installing new fiber can cost as much as $20,000 per km -- DWDM may be a way around crippling labor costs and regulations associated with laying new fiber. But in many other areas, the costs are closer to $1,000 per km to pull fiber if existing conduits are in place. DWDM simply does not prove in economically where such low figures apply and new fiber will be installed in the loop, all the way to the customer premises. Unlike fiber-to-the-home schemes, it has been much easier to cost justify fiber-to-the-business. Large commercial and industrial buildings are now almost always served with fiber and CIR expects this trend to continue downward to smaller locations. And according to CIR, the large incumbent local exchange carriers (ILECs), such as Bell Atlantic or SBC, are more willing than ever to invest in a fiber infrastructure to win key business accounts. If the ILEC does not install fiber-to-the-building, it knows that its competitors will. Those competitors now include everyone from AT&T and MCI Worldcom to tiny competitive local exchange companies (CLECs). In the struggle that is resulting among these service providers to meet the needs of large customers, fiber deployment is accelerating. The "Fiber-To-The-X: The New For Fiber To the Desk, Cabinet, And Home" study can be obtained from CIR.