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Biotech / Medical : VISX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mts362 who wrote (1635)	2/22/2000 6:45:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 1754

Fair enough - We disagree on revised estimates. Thats what makes a market.

To: mts362 who wrote (1635)	2/22/2000 6:59:00 PM
From: MGV	Respond to of 1754

The calculations were relative not absolute, if that is clear to you. Whether the forecast is 1.5 or 1.2, VISX was forecast to earn 1.99 as of yesterday. So, if a 1.2M number in 2000 translated to 1.99 in 2001 for VISX, then we are talking about 1.8M to equate to roughly a 35% decline in procedure revenue and not 2.0M. As for service revenue - It should increase as the installed base of lasers increases. As for laser sales, 1.99 in 2001 already incorporates lower laser system sales. At the margin, laser system sales increase with a lower procedure fee. The analysis revolves around revisions to the $1.99 in 2001. Laser sales should be higher than previously forecast at the margin, not lower. -- =DJ Wall St Expected To Lower Visx Views After Announcement -- By Johanna Bennett NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Wall Street analysts are expected to cut estimates for Visx Inc. (VISX) on the heels of the company's announcement Tuesday that it is slashing its all important licensing fees by more than 50%. Analysts said more than 3 million vision-correcting laser surgeries will have to be performed in the U.S. this year for the California-based laser manufacturer to make up for the lost licensing fees. And unless Visx officials can legitimately explain how the industry will more than double the number of procedures expected, analysts will likely lower their views. Wall Street has projected 1.3 million to 1.5 million surgical procedures will be performed this year. "Unless the company is prepared to tell us that procedure growth is off the charts, they are putting pressure on estimates," said SG Cowen Securities analyst Matt Dodds. Visx announced Tuesday that it was cutting its licensing fee to $100 a procedure from $250 as part of an initiative to accelerate the growth of vision-correcting laser surgery. The California-based company, the largest maker of vision-correcting surgical lasers used to treat vision problems such as nearsightedness, makes money by selling the machines to doctors and vision centers who perform the surgeries, and charging them a fee for every procedure performed using one of its lasers. That fee provides Visx with most of its value, analysts said, guaranteeing a steady flow of revenue no matter how many lasers the company sells. But it has become a sore point between Visx and some of its larger customers who complain that rival manufacturers charge cheaper fees or no fee at all. Last year, an administrative law judge for the International Trade Commission ruled that a Visx rival, Japanese-based Nidek, could sell its lasers in the U.S. The company doesn't charge a licensing fee. Meanwhile, a major Visx customer, Laser Vision Centers Inc. (LCVI), has announced that it is breaking its exclusive relationship with Visx, citing the company's licensing fee. (MORE) DOW JONES NEWS 02-22-00 05:49 PM- - 05 49 PM EST 02-22-00 Symbols: US;LVCI US;VISX US;LVS Source DJ - Dow Jones