Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (60765)	2/23/2000 11:26:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Bull - "the trickle" is right - they will make an obligatory "easing"... OPEC has to throw the Consuming Nations a "bone" here - and it will be a trickle. Two thoughts; first - I still think that I saw where they require a unanimous vote to increase production. The danger is if a lone holdout rocks the boat - then Venezeula, or someone cheats and all hell breaks lose - that's the downside imo. The upside; is that they are "talking down" prices and the price of Crude itself is not the problem politically - it's heating oil that is getting the political push here in the USA. As we exit US domestic heating season - and demand subsides a bit;their will be little Global sympathy for US domestic gasoline prices. Crude prices are where they should be today on a historic inflation-adjusted basis. (Greenspan warning live on CNBC - that inventories are dangerously low... fwiw) OPEC needs to just throw them a "bone" with a bit of obligatory easing and that is what we will see. OPEC is smart enough to know that if they say they want a $20 floor for crude oil; then the speculators can push it down to $16, $17 on any negative fundamental news if seen down the road - and/or spin doctoring & short selling speculation alone. I hope OPEC is smart enough to "pad" their real desired "floor" price... This is a no-brainer here; OPEC must move in baby-steps and they have not forgotten the Jakarta syndrome... the profit taking and the immediate turn to short selling crude would be "violent" if they make any degree of a major easing here - and they know it. We are compressing that coiled spring here - some E&P's like UPR here today have nearly fully retraced to last January's lows in the near panic of $10-$12 crude - simply amazing. PXD & UPR have dramatically shored up their balance sheets. OEI - maybe we get the low-mid $8's again here ? E&P's with their earnings visibility here are simply near "once in a lifetime" buys imo... some Oil Majors off 4-5% today... you'd think the market was reading some old NOESIS reports predicting $8 crude next month !?!? UPR on a break of $9 becomes an incredible buy... XTO's crude oil hedges look pretty damn smart to me here fwiw...still a gift at $8. Big Dog - I'm waiting for $8 on KEG - I would love $7 3/4ish actually - and we could see that if this softness continues here. Around $8ish - I'm in for a beginning position; will average up, or down to add... NBR I pray comes down to say $28ish and I will be all over that as well. ETP - a "Euro-Oil" looking awfully cheap folks - with heavy crude oil exposure - this is also at an anomaly valuation - selloff here (50% upside to its high of last damn month !?!?! - great takeout candidate at this price... BR - going to see $25 ? - amazing with these commodity prices... amazing. We are going to have some margin/leverage candidates here that are going to be cause for one hell of a celebration here in about 6 weeks. Maybe we ought to start planning the "double your holdings - by Memeorial Day" Party here... margining the likes of UPR PXD ETP etc here have 50% upside, or a margined double by Memorial day imo - "if" OPEC does the right thing... Major money going to be made here. The damn mini-major/Super Independants are phenomenal buys here - hell, they have 50% upside, or margined doubles there with COC, UCL , etc. Waiting on $8 7/8ths UPR for a major "bounce" trade here - Come on down....

To: BigBull who wrote (60765)	2/23/2000 11:35:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

re: - "The TRIPLING of Crude prices" ... anyone else go ballistic - ... when they keep reading & hearing this damn "media byte" Spin Doctoring BS ? ..."the TRIPLING" of crude prices - unbelieveable; this is like "MASSIVE CUTS" to social security when they lowered the rate of the INCREASE in spending - not actually cutting a damn dime... Why do we let the media get away with this BS ? Damn; I think I might finally know how SargeK feels when he starts spitting & stuttering over FGH... (which by the way - has still "Fallen & can't get up) fwiw... :O)