To: Amots  who wrote (310 ) 3/12/2000 11:24:00 PM From: BRA     Read Replies (1)  | Respond to    of 401  
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC.  Headline: Jacada Ltd.: Reiterate Buy on Recent Price Weakness  Author  Rating: 1  Company: JCDA  Country: COM CUS  Industry: DATAPR  Ticker : JCDA Rank(Old): 1-Buy Rank(New): 1-Buy  Price : $24 1/2 52wk Range: $37-8.00 Price Target (Old): $40  Today's Date : 03/01/00 Price Target (New): $40  Fiscal Year : DEC  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  EPS 1999 2000 2001 - -  QTR. Actual Old New Old New Old New  1st: -0.04A -0.03E -0.03E - -E - -E - -  2nd: 0.00A -0.02E -0.02E - -E - -E - -  3rd: 0.00A -0.02E -0.02E - -E - -E - -  4th: 0.02A 0.00E 0.00E - -E - -E - -  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Year:$ -0.02A $ -0.07E $ -0.07E $ 0.01E $ 0.01E $ - $ -  Street Est.: $ -0.08E $ -0.08E $ 0.11E $ 0.11E $ - - $ - -  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Price (As of 3/01): $24 1/2 Revenue (00): 23.2M  Return On Equity (00): N/A Proj. 5yr EPS Grth: 35%  Shares Outstanding: 18.9 Mil. Dividend Yield: N/A  Mkt Capitalization: 450.01 Mil. P/E 2000; 2001 : N/M; N/M X  Current Book Value: N/A Convertible: None  Debt-to-Capital: N/M Disclosure(s): C, A  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  *Before bouncing off lows yesterday, Jacada down nearly 30% since reporting  earlier in month, despite solid earnings report and accelerating business  prospects. Strongly reiterate our 1-Buy and $40 price target. Believe  current valuation is appropriate time for establishing or adding to positions.  *Believe decline in price has little relevance to fundamentals. Lack of  liquidity and sexier B2B, I-infrastructure companies appear to be lowering  attention spans. We remind investors that Jacada fills important  infrastructure niche in providing Web interfaces to mainframe applications.  *Jacada's backlog and visibility are at record levels. As a result, we  expect a significant uptick in the growth rate of higher margin license  revenue from our forecast of 60.8%. We also expect upside of several million  to our FY00 estimate of $23.2M. Current quarter is in excellent shape.  *At 18 times FY00 revenue, believe Jacada is under-appreciated and  undervalued, particularly compared to companies related to the application  integration space, which are trading in the 60-100 times range. We believe  Jacada could trade to 30 times on improving fundamentals, business execution  and new product releases. We see little possibility of a revenue and  earnings disappointment over the coming quarters.  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------  Summary:  Investment Thesis: We continue to view Jacada as a unique B2B play occupying  an important and growing niche in the area of mainframe integration.  Jacada's Jacada for Java conversion engine gives new life to mainframe  applications by converting a green-screen user interface into a versatile Web  page that can be accessed through a browser. The implication is significant  for large companies and governments who can now extend their fully functional  legacy applications to suppliers, partners, customers and employees via the  Web. Demand for Jacada's e-business products are at record levels, growing  in excess of 80% and product license revenue is showing strong acceleration.  We expect license revenue growth to considerably exceed our 60.8% forecast  for FY00. Unlike most early stage companies, Jacada operates near  profitability and losses (currently -$0.07 FY00) could decrease as a  result of this greater concentration of license revenue.  Market Opportunity: IDC has sized the Web to host market (mainframe) at $1.2B  by 2003. Corporations and governments have just completed a $100B+ Y2K  upgrade of their primarily mainframe systems. Most of these mission critical  applications will continue to be used for years to come. The challenge for  many IT managers is how best to utilize these applications in a Web  environment without having to do expensive and time consuming code rewrite.  Jacada provides the products and services that address this challenge.  Demand should continue to be strong as corporations move their legacy  applications to the Web.  Recent Events: Jacada recently reported 4Q99 results, with revenue and EPS of  $4.4M and $0.02, exceeding our $4.1M and ($0.01) estimates. The stock has  since traded down 30%, despite record backlog and visibility. We cite two  factors for the decline: 1) short attention spans with some investors who  have become enamored with 10-20% daily price moves in the B2B and I-  infrastructure areas and 2) liquidity. The stock over the past week has been  under pressure on little volume. We also believe that coming out of the  quarter that some investors expected greater than 7% upside in the quarter.  We remind investors that Jacada is a very conservative company focused on  building a business with strong earnings visibility. We also believe that  business is improving to the point where we may see a significant increase in  the product license revenue growth rate (currently 60.8%). This reflects a  maturation of the primary Jacada for Java product, which is beginning to move  from trial deployments to full-scale deployments. The product is also  requiring less consulting support and we may see slight services revenue as a  result.  Catalysts: Near-term catalysts include the release of Jacada Innovator over  the next few weeks. This product is two quarters ahead of schedule and the  beta has already resulted in firm orders. Jacada Innovator's addressable  market is the six million developers who continue to develop applications in  their native programming languages (i.e. COBOL). Innovator allows developers  to continue to write new applications and extend them to the Web. The  distinction here is new vs. legacy apps. Jacada Innovator has been co-  developed with IBM, one of Jacada's largest partners. Little contribution is  baked into our FY00 model, though we expect this product to potentially  represent a significant source of upside over time. We also will be looking  for announcements in the rapidly growing wireless and XML areas over the next  couple of months in addition to new customer wins in the very near term.  Valuation: At 18 times FY00, we view Jacada as undervalued, particularly when  compared to high flying application integration companies which are trading  in excess of 60-100 times. While not directly in the same space, Jacada  provides products and services that facilitate and bridge the gap of moving  applications to the Internet. We believe Jacada could trade in excess 30  times revenue, nearly twice current valuation, yet a still a significant  discount to other high flyers in this space. Strongly reiterate our 1-Buy  and $40 price target.