Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (41165)	2/24/2000 12:20:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LT - Wow, you really made sense with that one! Just when I was getting used to the all clowns stuff <ggg> Les - Great call waaay back when when you were touting the superconductor stocks. I thought you might be barking up the wrong tree but you nailed the bottom on that one well. LG - I see you are bedfellows with AG and love him deeply <gggg> As for market direction, I think LT has it nailed. The whipsaws are playing heck with our systems so I am not sure of anything but I did go long today and have to admit I am feeling sick to my stomach about it. All my stuff says we are too low to crash yet I have seen low readings go even lower on some pretty major stocks so who knows. The NASDAQ is just too high still for me to be able to buy it and I feel that so many are expecting a rotation from the NASDAQ to the DOW and SPX that too many bought puts or went short and now the squeeze is on. I would suspect that today was a manipulation thing but the volume was impressive and so I have to side with it being a combination technical bounce, short squeeze and real breakout using the shorts money albeit very extreme short term. I do believe we are witnessing a MAJOR topping action here but just when it will blow is the tough part. I have stated numerous times that I am seeing all the same things I saw in April 98 with many of the same stocks dropping like flies while the indexes continue to move up or bounce around flat. Of course back then, the NASDAQ didn't die until July some 3 months later and I told Don a few days ago I felt a short squeeze was highly possible. How high it can go I am not sure of though. My technicals say we should cap out in the 4700 range but it is climbing ever so slowly as I was targeting 4500 a few weeks ago. Now given that that target would put us only 300 points from 5K, I have to think that they would run it to 5K plus a fudge factor just to prove they can do it like they did 10K on the DOW which over extended things so much that it pushed us into this rnage bound market for the last year plus. I expect much of the same in the NASDAQ. They could likely try to push it to 5K+ then all heck breaks loose as the summer tech sell off time period hits. All this said, would I try to trade a rally to 5K, NO WAY. We are over extended now and the rallies keep getting more and more narrow. The only thing going up other than CSCO's price and the other rallying stocks prices are their PE ratios. Earnings are no longer keeping up with revenue nor earnings growth. I am dipping in the DOW and SPX area but I won't be holding them long and will sweat every night I hold them. I am expecting a day or two rally but then after that, who knows. We could drop hard at any time once the indicators get off the floor. As for all the posts I read about P&F, I am sorry but I always dioscounted the first reversal and this range we have had lately has shown me that it will not work in a volatile market. note they were saying short Friday night and now we are up. That is three or 4 in a row now where the short term indicator has been whipsawed to sell at the low and buy at the high. I am not trying to slam the P&F crowd as other indicators are starting to fail also. I noted some of the SPOO guys are getting whipsawed as well and even some of my stuff is doing things they haven't done in years or ever. To put it in plain language, the returns may not be as great but I feel the SPX is the safer play compared to teh NASDAQ and though they will all drop, the NASDAQ has much further to fall and more margin involved to speed the drop once it starts. We are witnessing some interesting times and I don't think the longer term outcome is going to be bull friendly. Scalp 'em if you got 'em but I would not be buying penny stocks on full margin and going on vacation <ggg> As to AG and margin. He is trapped and has no choice. We are in an inflationary environment and the only reason we aren't seeing run away pricves is because we can pay all employees cheap options. If we raise margin requirements, that could/would prick the bubble that he KNOWS we are in. You prick the bubble and no one will work for options anymore and want real cash for pay. If you have to pay real cash in a tight labor pool the companies will have less profits, no way to pull off accounting games to make things look better than they are and the companies won't be able to borrow money for paychecks due to higher interest rates thus going full circle to less profits. AG wants to stall the market right where it is. No severe drop, just a nice trading range so everyone must either stagnate or trade short term generating short term capital gains taxes to further feed the Treasury. He can only hope to maintain this game until earnings start to catch up to valuations and the true lower growth of earnings shows itself and brings some rationality back to the market. Just another short post <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: Lucretius who wrote (41165)	2/24/2000 12:20:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

dippiitidy no, you don't get it, I was bullish from the the late jan low until early last week, during the trading range, which is an indecision pattern of course i flipped, as did the investing public who could not make up their mind if we were putting in a nasdaq top or not, nor could I, because i let the market tell me. of course you never get whipsawed, because you always know the outcome -g- how are your poots doing. you and rarebird are two nutbirds, you can't stand somebody who can adjust their outlook on a dime, you stuck in the muds can stay wrong for weeks, months, and years at a time -g- the market is right, understand that, not you and your concept of what is right. until you understand that you will continue to rarely be on the right side of the trade. all bears will be destroyed, that includes you.