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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LiPolymer who wrote (18118)	2/24/2000 12:42:00 PM
From: add	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

Given the current WSTL/TLTN spread, the market is giving a 80% chance that the deal will be done. My analysis is a simple one it is not the spread difference, but simple probability theory. Given, the WSTL price if the deal is done, the TLTN price should be 3.3 times the WSTL price. The probability of that deal is P. If the deal is not done, TLTN will be something say Y. Then we get the simple equation: 3.3WSTL(current price)P + Y - P*Y = TLTN(current price) If you assume a range of say 20-40 for Y, the TLTN price if the deal doesn't go through, then we pretty much get P = 80%. P is not very sensitive in that range for Y. So the deal with get done with a 80% probability as of this morning 9:30 PST.

To: LiPolymer who wrote (18118)	2/26/2000 9:16:00 PM
From: kolo55	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

I am still long all my TLTN shares. Some of the people who follow my posts have chided me to update the status of my TLTN investment. I still have all my TLTN shares. I think the news is going to get better and better for Westell, and although I am have not added to my position for some time (for obvious reason, heavy exposure in one stock), I think the stock has quite a ways to run. I will hold at least until the May 18 earnings release and conference call, so talk to you all in May. In the meantime, I will enjoy the ride. Paul