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Technology Stocks : 3Com Corporation (COMS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (39803)	2/24/2000 1:13:00 PM
From: Mang Cheng	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 45548

David, I have updated the spreadsheet to reflect $1 increment on Palm as we approach ipo day - last spreadsheet I used $10 increments. The way to read this spreadsheet is "when Palm is at $80, the combined value of coms/Palm will be $150 at 100% without discount. At 10% discount, coms/Palm will be $135, at 20% discount it will be $120 and so on. When Palm is at $80, market cap for Palm is 45.6 billions and psr is 30. The Palm_cap is projected market cap for Palm at various price levels assuming share outstanding to be 570 million. PSR is price to sales ratio = "Market-Cap / $1.5 billion revenue". 1.5 billion is projected Palm revenue into the next year or so. Assumption is that coms is worth $30 without Palm. Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 8.0 5.3 14 21.0 30 51 46 41 36 31 8.6 5.7 15 22.5 30 53 47 42 37 32 9.1 6.1 16 24.0 30 54 49 43 38 32 9.7 6.5 17 25.5 30 56 50 44 39 33 10.3 6.8 18 27.0 30 57 51 46 40 34 10.8 7.2 19 28.5 30 59 53 47 41 35 11.4 7.6 20 30.0 30 60 54 48 42 36 12.0 8.0 21 31.5 30 62 55 49 43 37 12.5 8.4 22 33.0 30 63 57 50 44 38 13.1 8.7 23 34.5 30 65 58 52 45 39 13.7 9.1 24 36.0 30 66 59 53 46 40 14.3 9.5 25 37.5 30 68 61 54 47 41 14.8 9.9 26 39.0 30 69 62 55 48 41 15.4 10.3 27 40.5 30 71 63 56 49 42 16.0 10.6 28 42.0 30 72 65 58 50 43 16.5 11.0 29 43.5 30 74 66 59 51 44 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 17.1 11.4 30 45.0 30 75 68 60 53 45 17.7 11.8 31 46.5 30 77 69 61 54 46 18.2 12.2 32 48.0 30 78 70 62 55 47 18.8 12.5 33 49.5 30 80 72 64 56 48 19.4 12.9 34 51.0 30 81 73 65 57 49 20.0 13.3 35 52.5 30 83 74 66 58 50 20.5 13.7 36 54.0 30 84 76 67 59 50 21.1 14.1 37 55.5 30 86 77 68 60 51 21.7 14.4 38 57.0 30 87 78 70 61 52 22.2 14.8 39 58.5 30 89 80 71 62 53 22.8 15.2 40 60.0 30 90 81 72 63 54 23.4 15.6 41 61.5 30 92 82 73 64 55 23.9 16.0 42 63.0 30 93 84 74 65 56 24.5 16.3 43 64.5 30 95 85 76 66 57 25.1 16.7 44 66.0 30 96 86 77 67 58 25.7 17.1 45 67.5 30 98 88 78 68 59 26.2 17.5 46 69.0 30 99 89 79 69 59 26.8 17.9 47 70.5 30 101 90 80 70 60 27.4 18.2 48 72.0 30 102 92 82 71 61 27.9 18.6 49 73.5 30 104 93 83 72 62 28.5 19.0 50 75.0 30 105 95 84 74 63 29.1 19.4 51 76.5 30 107 96 85 75 64 29.6 19.8 52 78.0 30 108 97 86 76 65 30.2 20.1 53 79.5 30 110 99 88 77 66 30.8 20.5 54 81.0 30 111 100 89 78 67 31.4 20.9 55 82.5 30 113 101 90 79 68 31.9 21.3 56 84.0 30 114 103 91 80 68 32.5 21.7 57 85.5 30 116 104 92 81 69 33.1 22.0 58 87.0 30 117 105 94 82 70 33.6 22.4 59 88.5 30 119 107 95 83 71 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 34.2 22.8 60 90.0 30 120 108 96 84 72 34.8 23.2 61 91.5 30 122 109 97 85 73 35.3 23.6 62 93.0 30 123 111 98 86 74 35.9 23.9 63 94.5 30 125 112 100 87 75 36.5 24.3 64 96.0 30 126 113 101 88 76 37.1 24.7 65 97.5 30 128 115 102 89 77 37.6 25.1 66 99.0 30 129 116 103 90 77 38.2 25.5 67 100.5 30 131 117 104 91 78 38.8 25.8 68 102.0 30 132 119 106 92 79 39.3 26.2 69 103.5 30 134 120 107 93 80 39.9 26.6 70 105.0 30 135 122 108 95 81 40.5 27.0 71 106.5 30 137 123 109 96 82 41.0 27.4 72 108.0 30 138 124 110 97 83 41.6 27.7 73 109.5 30 140 126 112 98 84 42.2 28.1 74 111.0 30 141 127 113 99 85 42.8 28.5 75 112.5 30 143 128 114 100 86 43.3 28.9 76 114.0 30 144 130 115 101 86 43.9 29.3 77 115.5 30 146 131 116 102 87 44.5 29.6 78 117.0 30 147 132 118 103 88 45.0 30.0 79 118.5 30 149 134 119 104 89 45.6 30.4 80 120.0 30 150 135 120 105 90 46.2 30.8 81 121.5 30 152 136 121 106 91 46.7 31.2 82 123.0 30 153 138 122 107 92 47.3 31.5 83 124.5 30 155 139 124 108 93 47.9 31.9 84 126.0 30 156 140 125 109 94 48.5 32.3 85 127.5 30 158 142 126 110 95 49.0 32.7 86 129.0 30 159 143 127 111 95 49.6 33.1 87 130.5 30 161 144 128 112 96 50.2 33.4 88 132.0 30 162 146 130 113 97 50.7 33.8 89 133.5 30 164 147 131 114 98 51.3 34.2 90 135.0 30 165 149 132 116 99 51.9 34.6 91 136.5 30 167 150 133 117 100 52.4 35.0 92 138.0 30 168 151 134 118 101 53.0 35.3 93 139.5 30 170 153 136 119 102 53.6 35.7 94 141.0 30 171 154 137 120 103 54.2 36.1 95 142.5 30 173 155 138 121 104 54.7 36.5 96 144.0 30 174 157 139 122 104 55.3 36.9 97 145.5 30 176 158 140 123 105 55.9 37.2 98 147.0 30 177 159 142 124 106 56.4 37.6 99 148.5 30 179 161 143 125 107 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 57.0 38.0 100 150.0 30 180 162 144 126 108 57.6 38.4 101 151.5 30 182 163 145 127 109 58.1 38.8 102 153.0 30 183 165 146 128 110 58.7 39.1 103 154.5 30 185 166 148 129 111 59.3 39.5 104 156.0 30 186 167 149 130 112 59.9 39.9 105 157.5 30 188 169 150 131 113 60.4 40.3 106 159.0 30 189 170 151 132 113 61.0 40.7 107 160.5 30 191 171 152 133 114 61.6 41.0 108 162.0 30 192 173 154 134 115 62.1 41.4 109 163.5 30 194 174 155 135 116 62.7 41.8 110 165.0 30 195 176 156 137 117 63.3 42.2 111 166.5 30 197 177 157 138 118 63.8 42.6 112 168.0 30 198 178 158 139 119 64.4 42.9 113 169.5 30 200 180 160 140 120 65.0 43.3 114 171.0 30 201 181 161 141 121 65.6 43.7 115 172.5 30 203 182 162 142 122 66.1 44.1 116 174.0 30 204 184 163 143 122 66.7 44.5 117 175.5 30 206 185 164 144 123 67.3 44.8 118 177.0 30 207 186 166 145 124 67.8 45.2 119 178.5 30 209 188 167 146 125 68.4 45.6 120 180.0 30 210 189 168 147 126 69.0 46.0 121 181.5 30 212 190 169 148 127 69.5 46.4 122 183.0 30 213 192 170 149 128 70.1 46.7 123 184.5 30 215 193 172 150 129 70.7 47.1 124 186.0 30 216 194 173 151 130 71.3 47.5 125 187.5 30 218 196 174 152 131 71.8 47.9 126 189.0 30 219 197 175 153 131 72.4 48.3 127 190.5 30 221 198 176 154 132 73.0 48.6 128 192.0 30 222 200 178 155 133 73.5 49.0 129 193.5 30 224 201 179 156 134 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 74.1 49.4 130 195.0 30 225 203 180 158 135 74.7 49.8 131 196.5 30 227 204 181 159 136 75.2 50.2 132 198.0 30 228 205 182 160 137 75.8 50.5 133 199.5 30 230 207 184 161 138 76.4 50.9 134 201.0 30 231 208 185 162 139 77.0 51.3 135 202.5 30 233 209 186 163 140 77.5 51.7 136 204.0 30 234 211 187 164 140 78.1 52.1 137 205.5 30 236 212 188 165 141 78.7 52.4 138 207.0 30 237 213 190 166 142 79.2 52.8 139 208.5 30 239 215 191 167 143 79.8 53.2 140 210.0 30 240 216 192 168 144 80.4 53.6 141 211.5 30 242 217 193 169 145 80.9 54.0 142 213.0 30 243 219 194 170 146 81.5 54.3 143 214.5 30 245 220 196 171 147 82.1 54.7 144 216.0 30 246 221 197 172 148 82.7 55.1 145 217.5 30 248 223 198 173 149 83.2 55.5 146 219.0 30 249 224 199 174 149 83.8 55.9 147 220.5 30 251 225 200 175 150 84.4 56.2 148 222.0 30 252 227 202 176 151 84.9 56.6 149 223.5 30 254 228 203 177 152 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 85.5 57.0 150 225.0 30 255 230 204 179 153 86.1 57.4 151 226.5 30 257 231 205 180 154 86.6 57.8 152 228.0 30 258 232 206 181 155 87.2 58.1 153 229.5 30 260 234 208 182 156 87.8 58.5 154 231.0 30 261 235 209 183 157 88.4 58.9 155 232.5 30 263 236 210 184 158 88.9 59.3 156 234.0 30 264 238 211 185 158 89.5 59.7 157 235.5 30 266 239 212 186 159 90.1 60.0 158 237.0 30 267 240 214 187 160 90.6 60.4 159 238.5 30 269 242 215 188 161 91.2 60.8 160 240.0 30 270 243 216 189 162 91.8 61.2 161 241.5 30 272 244 217 190 163 92.3 61.6 162 243.0 30 273 246 218 191 164 92.9 61.9 163 244.5 30 275 247 220 192 165 93.5 62.3 164 246.0 30 276 248 221 193 166 94.1 62.7 165 247.5 30 278 250 222 194 167 94.6 63.1 166 249.0 30 279 251 223 195 167 95.2 63.5 167 250.5 30 281 252 224 196 168 95.8 63.8 168 252.0 30 282 254 226 197 169 96.3 64.2 169 253.5 30 284 255 227 198 170 96.9 64.6 170 255.0 30 285 257 228 200 171 97.5 65.0 171 256.5 30 287 258 229 201 172 98.0 65.4 172 258.0 30 288 259 230 202 173 98.6 65.7 173 259.5 30 290 261 232 203 174 99.2 66.1 174 261.0 30 291 262 233 204 175 99.8 66.5 175 262.5 30 293 263 234 205 176 100.3 66.9 176 264.0 30 294 265 235 206 176 100.9 67.3 177 265.5 30 296 266 236 207 177 101.5 67.6 178 267.0 30 297 267 238 208 178 102.0 68.0 179 268.5 30 299 269 239 209 179 102.6 68.4 180 270.0 30 300 270 240 210 180 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 103.2 68.8 181 271.5 30 302 271 241 211 181 103.7 69.2 182 273.0 30 303 273 242 212 182 104.3 69.5 183 274.5 30 305 274 244 213 183 104.9 69.9 184 276.0 30 306 275 245 214 184 105.5 70.3 185 277.5 30 308 277 246 215 185 106.0 70.7 186 279.0 30 309 278 247 216 185 106.6 71.1 187 280.5 30 311 279 248 217 186 107.2 71.4 188 282.0 30 312 281 250 218 187 107.7 71.8 189 283.5 30 314 282 251 219 188 108.3 72.2 190 285.0 30 315 284 252 221 189 114.0 76.0 200 300.0 30 330 297 264 231 198 125.4 83.6 220 330.0 30 360 324 288 252 216 131.1 87.4 230 345.0 30 375 338 300 263 225 136.8 91.2 240 360.0 30 390 351 312 273 234 142.5 95.0 250 375.0 30 405 365 324 284 243 148.2 98.8 260 390.0 30 420 378 336 294 252 153.9 102.6 270 405.0 30 435 392 348 305 261 159.6 106.4 280 420.0 30 450 405 360 315 270 165.3 110.2 290 435.0 30 465 419 372 326 279 171.0 114.0 300 450.0 30 480 432 384 336 288 176.7 117.8 310 465.0 30 495 446 396 347 297 182.4 121.6 320 480.0 30 510 459 408 357 306 188.1 125.4 330 495.0 30 525 473 420 368 315 193.8 129.2 340 510.0 30 540 486 432 378 324 199.5 133.0 350 525.0 30 555 500 444 389 333 205.2 136.8 360 540.0 30 570 513 456 399 342 210.9 140.6 370 555.0 30 585 527 468 410 351 216.6 144.4 380 570.0 30 600 540 480 420 360 222.3 148.2 390 585.0 30 615 554 492 431 369 228.0 152.0 400 600.0 30 630 567 504 441 378 233.7 155.8 410 615.0 30 645 581 516 452 387 Palm_cap PSR Palm x 1.5 +COMS 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 10%discnt 30%discnt 239.4 159.6 420 630.0 30 660 594 528 462 396 245.1 163.4 430 645.0 30 675 608 540 473 405 250.8 167.2 440 660.0 30 690 621 552 483 414 256.5 171.0 450 675.0 30 705 635 564 494 423 262.2 174.8 460 690.0 30 720 648 576 504 432 267.9 178.6 470 705.0 30 735 662 588 515 441 273.6 182.4 480 720.0 30 750 675 600 525 450 279.3 186.2 490 735.0 30 765 689 612 536 459 285.0 190.0 500 750.0 30 780 702 624 546 468 The highlighted line is the one I'm shooting for. It reads like this: "if Palm is at $120, the market cap of Palm is 68 billions with a psr of 46, the combined coms/Palm value is $210, at 10% discount it's $189, at 20% discount it's $168, at 30% it's $147, and at 40% discount it's $126.". The following is the old spreadsheet (numbers the same except it uses a $10 increment for Palm) : *cap PSR Palm 1.5 coms 100% 90% 80% 70% 60%** 9,120 6 16 24 30 54 49 43 38 32 17,100 11 30 45 30 75 68 60 53 45 22,800 15 40 60 30 90 81 72 63 54 28,500 19 50 75 30 105 95 84 74 63 34,200 23 60 90 30 120 108 96 84 72 39,900 27 70 105 30 135 122 108 95 81 45,600 30 80 120 30 150 135 120 105 90 51,300 34 90 135 30 165 149 132 116 99 57,000 38 100 150 30 180 162 144 126 108 62,700 42 110 165 30 195 176 156 137 117 68,400 46 120 180 30 210 189 168 147 126 79,800 53 140 210 30 240 216 192 168 144 91,200 61 160 240 30 270 243 216 189 162 102,600 68 180 270 30 300 270 240 210 180 114,000 76 200 300 30 330 297 264 231 198 142,500 95 250 375 30 405 365 324 284 243 171,000 114 300 450 30 480 432 384 336 288 199,500 133 350 525 30 555 500 444 389 333 228,000 152 400 600 30 630 567 504 441 378 256,500 171 450 675 30 705 635 564 494 423 285,000 190 500 750 30 780 702 624 546 468 The highlighted line is the one I'm shooting for. It reads like this: "if Palm is at $120, the market cap of Palm is 68 billions with a psr of 46, the combined coms/Palm value is $210, at 10% discount it's $189, at 20% discount it's $168, at 30% it's $147, and at 40% discount it's $126.". I'll happily take any of the above numbers ! Note: All numbers above are approximates and presents a brain-storming session of analysis of some future speculative events - not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock. Mang

To: David E. Taylor who wrote (39803)	2/24/2000 1:21:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 45548

David, others on board. It might be interesting to review the action of other IPO's to get an inkling of what might be in store. For the record I am in coms at net of 22 based on stock buy and sell of 01/01 50 calls(darn it). Also playing probable near term action by buying stock and selling mar 80 calls. zd/zdz might be a good example of hyped closely held ipo. Stock closed at 36 on first day and then jumped to 48 next day. Over next two weeks very volatile in high 30's and low 40's. Monday after April 99 closing option day, low and behold, stock dropped from 39 to 31. Then drifted down for two months to high teens. Don't get me wrong I think coms/palm is a much more powerful story, but it is a story not an investment at these levels. Trying to perform an analysis based on market capitalization does not face the reality that this story will be driven by individuals not institutions. In any case we should have a dynamic two weeks and a price of 100 is not at all impossible. After March expiration I will just hold and hope coms/palm stays above 50 until Jan 2001.