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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (111)	2/24/2000 4:00:00 PM
From: Doppler	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Chip- It will take an event of major magnitude, but I think a recession is around the corner. The inverted yield curve is just one indicator hinting at that. What people also seem to be forgetting is that the Dow has NEVER had an EXTENDED period where it has gone past it's historical average of 12% gains without regressing back to the mean. And that includes plenty of major technological revolutions including the advent of the automobile. A 12% per annum gain from 1991's highs gives a target this year of 8319 (give or take a hundred or so, I was estimating 1991 prices off a log chart). A 12% rise from 1991's lows gives us 7200 in 2000. 12% from the average 1991 price gives about 7500. But that is not all I am basing it on. Look at the long term trend line on a log chart. Do it monthly and you will see the trend line is about 7500 now. In other words we could hit 7500 and still be in a long term uptrend. Think about it, that doesn't even take into account the possibility of a break below the trend line which historically occurs every decade or so. I'm pretty sure I saw somewhere that the REALLY LONG TERM trendline plotted on a yearly log chart had the trend line alot lower. Then there is the monthly MACD giving a sell signal. I don't believe this is the bottom. I could go on and on about valuations, margin debt, pe's etc, but I think the article John posted said alot of it for me. IF we stay even anywhere close to these levels, it will be the first time in WORLD history that a market hasn't crashed from levels like these. I don't mean to rant, but I think people have forgotten just how far up we have come. I hope I'm wrong. Jeff