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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wolff who wrote (21139)	2/24/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: Knight	Respond to of 57584

Wolff: Great research----Just don't hope I die from Cancer before I read it all. Just kidding--Great Job, Vickie

To: Wolff who wrote (21139)	2/25/2000 10:55:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Respond to of 57584

Wolff, thanks much for your work on ENMD. . . and for the tremendous page full of links. . . To all. . . It seems that zealots are quite emotional about Folkman and his hypothesis. ENMD seems the only place they can put their money. . . now accounting for the rise in biotechs, it appears that the cancer speculation has only moved the stock maybe an additional 15 or 20 points. So what we still don't know is whether or not we have scientific evidence to support the hypothesis. . .or if it even can be done in our lifetimes. But we do have a stock gaining in popularity, due to the hope of a cure. Now, if we only invested in stocks that had pure value, we would be down about 20% on the year. . . as valuation is NOT what moves stocks. . . at least not in the last 5-10 years at least. . . popularity does. . . just ask those in Boston Chicken and Iomega. . . the popularity drove the price to extremes. . .and in both those cases the company could not support the popularity and their prices plunged to the depths. That is the danger with all biotech stocks [or any tech]. . .CRA, HGSI, GENE, DNA, etc. The hope of many wonderful products has brough tremendous popularity to the sector. . . the popularity is what drives the price. . .similar to Yahoo, AOL and Amazon last year. . . . .and the higher this popularity pushes the price. . .the more pressure is on the company to perform up to the market cap given them. Some, like Yahoo, AOL, CSCO, INTC, MOT, etc. live up to expectations whereas those like AMZN, ETYS, etc. continue to disappoint. . .making the risk of the speculation that much more. So I would place ENMD into this same classification. . . like HGSI, CRA, or even of QCOM, which bets its future on a single technology. Imagine Nokia or someone coming out with an ultra fast technology that is better suited to broadband wireless. . . making CDMA seem slow and obsolete. . . if QCOM doesn't diversify, and such a thing were to happen, they could see the same demise as Iomega. There will be winners and losers in technology of all sorts. . .the winners will be big winners and the losers will be big losers. . . right now. . we are basically bidding up basket fulls of everything in hopes that some of it sticks. . . But we need to beware not to spread ourselves too thin in speculation. . . when a speculative makes big bucks and you take profits. . . it is best to send some of that cash over to a clear leader. Rande Is