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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (95049)	2/24/2000 11:48:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575697

Joe, Overall ASP for AMD was around $80 last quarter and AMD said "ASP was under $250 for Athlon." They expect a richer mix of parts for Q1'00, but their pre-announcement indicated strong demand at the low-end. Overall revenues flat to slightly higher was the other big piece of guidance in the last call. I would guess flat to slightly higher earnings from last quarter with the possibility of a nice surprise, but that is just a WAG. Bob

To: Joe NYC who wrote (95049)	2/25/2000 8:50:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1575697

Jozef: In round figures, 5 million non-Athys at $0.50 and 1 million Athys at $250 in Q4. (i.e. mix 1 Athy in 6)resulting in a Q4 ASP = $80. It is not inconceivable that the next 4 quarters will ship 2, 2.5, 3.0, 4.5 = 12 million total Athys (as per Salomon Smith Barnet estimate). Q1 estimate of 4 million (i.e conservative) Non-Athys at $0.50 and 2 million Athys at $200 (i.e conservative)results in an ASP of $100...I would estimate that each $10 increment in ASP will add about $0.30 to eps...Assuming 2 million Athys (i.e. optimistic but not wholly unrealistic given addition of GTW and HP and growing market awareness of the SMOOTH Athy) ASP equals $100, an increment of $20, resulting in an increment in eps of $0.60 which when added to Q4 $0.43 results in $1.03 eps in Q1, assuming flash remains a strong contributor!